The week trade ignores Turnaround-Tuesday in early trade.

World wheat markets continue to rise, adding risk premium as the Russian war intensifies. Spot Russian cash markets are stable at $5.53/bu. Short covering continues as it is seasonally difficult to be bearish wheat futures and cash prices in early/mid-spring. Key week's news ahead includes Ukraine targeting Russian energy infrastructures and new attacks that continue on Odesa in Ukraine, physically hampering the Black Sea grain trade. There is also the seasonal concern of freeze scares that can develop in late April.

According to the Financial Times, the EU is considering levying tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus to satisfy protesting farmers and member states. The proposed duty would be €95/MT or $104 US. Only modest amounts of Russian grain are imported into the EU; the focus of the protests is Ukrainian grain. Whether Brussels will place similar duties on Ukraine grain imports is key. EU farmers will not relent in protest until there is a duty mechanism to slow the flow of Ukraine grain.

Today is the start of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting to discuss interest rate policies. According to Peak Trading Research, traders expect Fed Chairman Powell to offer a more hawkish tone tomorrow due to firmer inflation metrics, better US data, and higher energy prices.

Brazilian soybean export premiums continue to sag, with the harvest at 66% complete. Brazilian farmers are selling newly harvested beans, and exporters report that China is a modest buyer. Compared to last year, premiums are higher due to the smaller crop size.

In Brazil, rainfall will occur, with near to above-normal rainfall across the northern half and for the southern eighth of Brazil, it will be near normal rain for Southcentral Brazil over the next 10 days. The coming rain will ease concern regarding soil moisture availability for corn. Meanwhile, extreme heat occurs in Paraguay/Mato Grosso do Sul, but otherwise, near-normal temperatures are forecasted.

Live and feeder cattle markets enjoyed a strong close on Monday, and a steady outlook is anticipated this morning. Live cattle remain within recent trading ranges, while the feeder cattle futures market led the rally, supported by a $1.86 gain in the feeder cash index to $250.86. Steady corn prices and a higher fat cattle futures market helped.

Last week, the Packers bought 82,876 head on a negotiated basis, with 66,655 scheduled for 1-14 day delivery and 16,221 for 15-30 day delivery. Negotiated sales volume continues to trend lower. Last week, just 16.5% of cattle purchased run on a negotiated basis, while 67.3% were sold formula-based. Negotiated grid transactions amounted to 9.5%, and forward contracts sales were 6.7%. The cash market continues to climb, with record prices paid in the South last week. Any future’s rally strength is tied to the cash trade. The board is reluctant to move ahead on its own to the upside.