China continues to cancel wheat purchases around the world.

Wheat futures are softer today as China continues its cancellation tour of wheat purchases. Yesterday, they canceled French wheat; today, they have canceled 1 MMT of Aussie wheat. These cancellations occurred in tandem with US SRW wheat purchase cancellations of at least 500,000 MT late last week. It’s rumored that the Chinese are positioning to purchase wheat at even cheaper prices amid the washouts. China has a WTO obligation to secure/import at least 9.25 MMTs of wheat annually and will need to be rebooked. It’s thought they are taking advantage of Russia’s fire sale of their supplies.

Germany’s 2024 wheat crop is anticipated to fall 6.5% to 20.1 MMTs in the winter rapeseed crop to 3.9 MMTs, which is a drop of 6.9%, according to the German Farm Cooperatives. Diminished plant area and extreme autumn wetness hurt the crop. Germany is the EU's second-largest wheat producer behind France.

NOPA’s members' February soybean crush estimate is 177-179 Mil Bu, a record. The prior record for February soybean crush was set last year at 165.4 Mil Bu. Soyoil stocks are forecasted at 1.6 Bil pounds, down 200 Mil pounds from last year, but up nearly 100 Mil pounds from January. The report will be released Friday at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Corn futures are softer this morning on weather forecasts that are adding some rain for the winter corn crop in N and C Brazil. Yesterday, corn stopped shy of the 50-day MA, which makes it prime for a correction.

The forecast for Northern and Central Brazil is slightly wetter than prior runs, with both the EU and GFS adding in .5-1.25” of rain versus prior runs. Confidence in the rain is not high; both weather models are offering it in their 10-day rainfall totals. Brazil’s high temperatures range in the 80s to upper 90s, with extreme heat across Paraguay, with highs in the lower 100s.

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday with a firm outlook for this morning’s early trade. April live cattle have closed at the top end of their recent range and marked the highest close since the October Cattle on Feed report. Cash markets remained quiet, with small numbers reportedly trading at $185 and $295 dressed. Packer interest appears tepid, and feedlots are looking to sell no worse than steady this week. At midweek, the choice cutout has gained so far $2.78 which was led by a $9/CWT gain in loin primal. The seasonal rally has been slow to get underway, and at $412/CWT, the loin primal is $20 higher than a year ago and at a record price for mid-March. Cattle slaughter by midweek totaled 351,000 head, down 11,000 from last week and 23,000 head fewer than a year ago. Packers continue to slow slaughter rates, backing up inventory and lifting carcass weights.

April cattle is plugging the October gap and looking to advance to the next technical target of 192.50, the 78% retracement of last fall’s high.