The grain trade is higher this morning, awaiting if Turn-around Tuesday can occur.

This morning’s grain trade is mostly higher, with soybeans at $0.11-.12 higher on recovering from extreme oversold conditions. Monday’s washout with a chart formation called outside day higher on corn is inspiring to retain strength. Turnaround Tuesday has his work cut out for it by the Bears to stall out positive technical action from Monday and the seasonal tendency for grain prices to rally in March.

Dry Northern Central Brazilian weather is becoming noticed as the window to plant winter corn runs to March 10. Winter Brazilian corn seeded after March 10 runs into a withdrawal of the monsoon and the dry season during April/May, which will affect the reproductive and filling processes.

Brazilian sources are noting that China is showing new interest in soy purchases. China booked 5-7 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans on Monday, and they are asking for offers from May/June. Premiums for Brazilian beans have been rising for several weeks now, narrowing the spread between Gulf and Brazilian prices.

Yesterday, Texas was in the 90s, with mid-80s pushing as far north as Nebraska on Monday. Strong winds developed with southern plains with gusts up to 50 mph, producing blowing dust and stressing the HRW wheat. The winter of 2023/24 will end up being the second warmest on record. Meanwhile, single-digit cold is being endured across North Dakota. The extremes in the Central US weather this winter have been remarkable, and there is the risk of a freeze on HRW wheat later this spring.

Today, the Biden administration and congressional leaders will be meeting to keep the USDA and several other agencies working ahead of Friday’s deadline on the US budget. The House GOP is figuring out a way forward, and Speaker Johnson is coming under increased pressure to cut a deal. The markets will closely watching developments heading into the weekend. If a budget deal can be found, then there will be a WASDE crop report on Friday, March 8. A NASS government closure for more than 10 days will have an impact on March acreage data released for March 29.

PCE inflation data this Thursday, with analysts expecting +2.4% y/y vs +2.6% y/y last month. Softer PCE data would be negative for the Dollar and positive for Ag commodities. The possibility of a government shutdown looms on Friday. The next WASDE Report is March 8th. The next FOMC rate decision is March 20th, bond markets are pricing in three rate cuts in 2024 with the first to occur in July.

Near to below normal rainfall is anticipated for Northern and Central Brazil, while above normal rainfall for Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil occurs. Fall soil moisture for winter corn across northern and central Brazil has been limited. The crop has just been planted, and the moisture needs are modest currently, but it’s key that better rains drop during March, with the monsoon to prematurely withdraw in April.

Cattle futures were higher on Monday, while feeder cattle closed lower on the higher placement number from Friday’s COF report. Cash cattle markets are at a standstill, with active trade expected to hold until the last half of the week. Cattle prices in the South last week were within $2-3 of record highs, with February cattle on Monday pricing in a cash trade of $3-4 higher for the week. The February Cold Storage Report showed January beef stocks were down 1% from December and 11% below a year ago. This marked the 12 straight months that stocks were below a year ago and the longest stretch since 2017/18. At 475 Mil pounds, it was the smallest January stocks figure since 2014. Stocks typically peak in December and decline into June/August. Stocks are anticipated to decline to 375 million pounds or less by summer to test the 2014 low stocks number. April cattle have resistance at $190.00.