The overnight trade finds wheat adding to the early week price reversal.

Grain prices are mostly higher this morning, with soybeans giving up overnight strength. Weakness in the US dollar, as the Japanese stock market scores new highs overnight and exceeded its 1989 peak, has the dollar back under 104.00. They are adding incentives for short covering in the wheat trade, which appears to have reversed higher earlier in the week.

The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their estimate of the 23/24 Argy soybean harvest to 49.5 MMT from their previous outlook of 52 MMT. They also lowered their estimate of the 23/24 Argy corn harvest to 57 MMT from their previous outlook of 59 MMT due to the impact of the heatwave.

Poland’s PM said they will meet with Ukraine leaders in Warsaw at the end of the month to discuss solutions to farmer problems for both countries. Slovakia’s PM indicated his country will continue bans on certain Ukraine Ag product imports.

Grain prices have become overly depressed, with the seed still in the bag and a long Northern Hemisphere growing season well in front of us. The record-warm Central US winter raises summer heat concerns, especially with the Midwest still registering low sub-moisture reserves 40 cm down. The March acreage report on the 29th of the month will be the upcoming feature, as farmers will send in their acreage cards later in the month. We live in a world where things are hard to stay the same, and this bear has become long in the tooth. Remember, many bears tend to die in February.

The EU/GFS/Canadian weather models are coming into agreement on the SA forecast. Below-normal rain is forecasted across Argentina in the southern half of Brazil for the next 10 days. The 4-10 day forecast starts a trend of below-normal rain for North Central Brazil. There is a change from any prior day runs with hints that the monsoon may be starting to lose its vitality seasonally. Some scattered showers are anticipated by this weekend in Argentina, with temperatures in the 80s/lower 90s. It’s anticipated that some rains are in the forecast in early March, and they need to develop and find their way into the near-term models.

Yesterday was another higher day for the live and feeder cattle trade as we head towards the February Cattle on Feed report this Friday at 2:00 p.m. Average guesses put the marketing at 100% of last year, placements at 88% in the Fed one feedlot inventory expected at 100%. The placement rate, if realized, will be the lowest since 2007 and the second lowest since 1996. Weather played a part in the light placement numbers, as feeder cattle supplies are tight, which may increase next month’s placements.

Cash markets are untraded at midweek, and the outlook is steady for the last half of the week. Cattle slaughter as of yesterday was 349,000 head, down 14,000 head from a week ago, and 4000 head fewer than last year. Box beef values were sharply mixed, with choice gaining $0.43 and select dropping $3.36. After the recent strength, you may see hedging start to arrive in the trade again on Thursday/Friday ahead of the COF report on Friday afternoon.