The grain trade softened from yesterday's gains.

Turnaround Tuesday (delayed due to the Monday holiday) got underway from the opening of last night's session, with the grain trade staying weak throughout the night. The Biden administration is promising new economic sanctions against Russia on Friday, and the trade is unsure whether it’ll alter existing banking relations enough to impact Russian commodity trade, which is now mostly in rubles anyway.

Argentina’s Port Chamber reported that Parana River navigation has returned to normal after a grounded ship was freed. Vessels are loading less grain temporarily. Private estimates continue to come down for the 23/24 Brazilian soybean crop, with Agroconsult cutting their estimate from 153.8 MMT to 152.2 MMT.

Farmers and analysts expect the Ukrainian corn area in 2024 to drop 9%. Low corn prices have impacted profitability, and producers are looking to switch to more profitable soybeans. The French PM addressed farmers with plans to implement proposals from earlier this month to address grievances raised by protests. Laws to help safeguard farmer income will not take effect until the summer.

Central Illinois is seeing corn cash bids $.09 cents over the board, with cash soybeans at $0.19 over. This premium has produced some farm cash selling on basis contracts. This cash movement is only enough for a few days of coverage in both ethanol and soy crush industries need to secure additional supplies. The first notice day against March futures is just six trading days away.

Bearish price trends still remain intact, with wheat possibly triggering a technical reversal on Tuesday that may stimulate a basing price bottom. The last day of the month/1st day of the month potential trend change date is next Thursday/Friday, with March price seasonals typically higher into the acreage data at the end of the month.

South American weather forecast maintains below-normal rainfall across Argentina in the southern half of Brazil for the next 10 days. The 11-15 day models have the GFS with rainfall of .25-1.50” rainfall returning, while the EU model maintains a normal rainfall trend. The next 5-6 days across Argentina will be dry with temps in the 80s/lower 90s. Several storm systems will produce what is anticipated to be scattered showers across Argentina early next week, with the best chance being in Argentina next Wednesday.

Cattle futures produced a firm/higher close on Tuesday, with feeder cattle futures higher across the board. Negotiated fed cattle markets remained quiet with the outlook steady, but a standoff could hold until the end of the week. Feedlots are dealing with negative margins and falling weights, while Packers are battling weak margins of their own. Estimated slaughter margins last week rose $20/head on lower cattle prices to $56 but are still $30 below average and $60 less than a year ago. However, the bi-product value adds an additional $111/head of revenue to the Packer's bottom line. This week’s market will likely wait for Friday. April live cattle are in the center of support and resistance with resistance at $190 while decent support on the charts is $182-183.