Grains slightly soft going into the 3 day weekend

It's president’s day on Monday which means markets will be closed on Monday the 19th. We could see some short covering going into this 3 day weekend from the bears and give a little push higher in grains to end the week. All grains have seen a good support value be let go this week which gives some concern going forward in February.

Bean prices are getting closer to the lowest levels we have seen since 2020 as we are expected to have a large crop this season and Brazil is continuing to harvest a near or a near record-breaking crop. The CBOT report showed bean futures volume has increased along with open interest and options volume increased as well and are favoring puts over calls still.

Corn is in the same mindset still with a rally being unlikely in the short term given the environment we are in. We are going to need some sort of cataclysmic event to get a fire going under these grains. Corn has had a slight drop in open interest, but volume has increased with options showing puts still slightly outweighing the calls.

The USDA outlook forum numbers were bearish as expected with values coming in higher in corn beans and wheat. This year’s corn number is 645 million bu more on corn, 161 million bu more in wheat and 145 million bu more in beans. This is also with the USDA using record yields for these crops in their equations. As every year, there are still some unknowns going forward that can change these numbers.

SA weather forecast shows limited rain for the next 10 days, but chances improve right after that window. In the harvesting areas of Brazil, they are looking at a potential 4-6 inches of rain to hinder their harvest progress. Temps are seasonally strong at 80-90s in Argentina right now but nothing too threatening in the future.

The cattle market found support yesterday after a sluggish start in the red and ended the day closing higher. April recovered above the 200-day MA on the close. A steady outlook is expected today to end the week. Feeder index was down $1.73 yesterday at $244.93. Boxed beef was higher yesterday by $1.30 on choice with select up $3.97 at record values for mid Feb.