The grains soften ahead of the USDA Outlook Forum.

Grain futures are lower this morning, with corn eking out another new contract low, while soybeans pressed recent support at 1180 but found support just under that value. Meanwhile, wheat again retreats, with the hard wheat making new contract lows as the Chicago wheat spread maintains a premium to Kansas City.

The USDA Outlook Forum starts tomorrow in Washington DC. Analysts are looking for 2024 US bean acres, which is near 86.4 million compared to 83.6 million last year. Corn acres are expected to be 92.0 million compared to 94.6 million last year.

Shipping sources report that Ukraine’s Black Sea and Danube River Ag exports from Feb 1-10 are estimated at 1.6 MMT. Of that total, 1.5 MMT went via the Black Sea. Ukraine military intelligence sources say they sunk a Russian landing warship off the southern coast of Crimea with drones.

The NOPA Crush Report will be out at 11 am CT tomorrow, and analysts project a January crush of 189.9 mbu compared to 195.33 mbu in December. Soyoil stocks are expected to rise to 1.41 billion lbs from 1.360 billion lbs in the previous month.

Brazilian soybean premiums continue to rise on strong domestic crush demand and farmer selling that has been below recent years. Again, stories from farmer organizations are reporting disappointing yields, while the USDA WASDE will not start to make their big downward adjustments until the March report with actual harvest data. Private crop estimates continue to decline and widen their spread from the USDA’s 156 MMT Brazil being crop estimate.

Yesterday, the Dow had its worst session since March of last year. Both the Dow and Nasdaq are bouncing this morning. This Friday morning, we get the PPI inflation data. Markets will be closed on Monday for the observance of Presidents’ Day. So, with another three-day weekend on the way, the market will be stacking up four on Friday.

The South American forecast is variable for Argentina and N Brazil in the 10-day window, with hints that monsoonal activity may be losing some of its punch in the 10-15-day period. The monsoon needs to be monitored closely, with soils drying out across the Amazon amid an extended range forecast calling for an early retreat of the monsoon in March/April. Average temperatures are prevailing in February in the 80s to lower 90s across most of Argentina.

Yesterday’s financial stock market weakness weighed on live and feeder cattle activity, producing a lower close for the second day in a row for live cattle. The CME cash feeder Index gained another $0.81 Tuesday to $246.87, while March feeders closed at $248. Since the start of the year, the cash feeder Index has gained $18, which is 8%, marking a record start to the year. Typically, the index sags to the first quarter, peeking early in the year and bottoming in early March, followed by a seasonal rally into the second quarter. Deferred futures reflect a stronger than normal seasonal rally, with autumn prices near $270. Yesterday was another two-day correction that, in the recent past, produced buying the next day. If live cattle fail to rally today, a larger correction may start unfolding. Lent starts today, so a portion of the population will not be eating beef on Fridays for the next six weeks.