A feeble Turn-around Tuesday tried to get underway overnight.

After making new winter price lows for corn, soybeans, and KC wheat, a mild turnaround Tuesday tried to develop overnight. Egypt’s GASC announced a tender (to close today) of an undetermined volume of wheat, Ukraine-origin wheat is the lowest offer so far. According to trade sources, Jordan has a 120K MT wheat tender that closes today, with seven firms participating. Algeria is looking for 120K MT of Argentine feed-grade corn, and Tunisia is also seeking 50K MT of Durum wheat this week.

As of yesterday, soybean oil is now below yellow grease and under cooking oil values, which have started to pick up additional demand as the US renewable diesel industry seeks greater supply this year. Expanding US crush capacity is for the soybean oil, but soybean meal will have an expanding supply, especially beyond May when Argentina is in the export market.

CONAB (Brazil’s version of the USDA) releases its monthly crop report on Wednesday. On Thursday, CPI data for the US will be released at 7:30 a.m., and the market expects +3.2% y/y vs +3.1% last month. Then, Friday at 11:00 a.m. is the WASDE January crop report. The average trade guess for yields is 174.9 bpa for corn and 49.9 bpa for beans, in line with November. South American crops, the guesses for Brazil to be at 156.3 MMT, down 4.7 MMT from last month, with corn at 125.3 MMTs, which is down 3.7 MMTs. The Argentine soybean crop has soybeans at 49 MMTs, while the corn crop is at 55 MMTs. The USDA will always be the most conservative estimate, with CONAB likely being the lower number. Given the extremely short nature of the index funds in the market, bearish data out on Friday may bring about short covering ahead of the three-day weekend ahead of Monday’s Martin Luther King Day.

Forecast models for South America agree that for the next 7-8 days of near daily monsoonal rain across N Brazil with accumulations of 1.50-4.00”. The best rains fall this weekend with diminished totals in the 9-15 day window. Additional showers fall across Argentina and far Southern Brazil early this week. It’s anticipated that rainfall will be less than crop moisture needs across Matto Grasso do Sul, Paraná, and Paraguay due to a high-pressure Ridge. High temperatures will range in the 80s to lower 90s across N Brazil, with the heat located across WC Brazil and Paraguay.

Live and feeder cattle prices burst sharply higher in the Monday morning session on a cold and stormy outlook for the feedlot states but abruptly reversed lower from those highs on reports that some packing plants will reduce shift schedules. Negotiated fed cattle markets were untraded as additional snow is forecast for much of KS and Eastern NE, followed by plunging temperatures. Cattle feeders will be looking for a cash trade in the face of coming weather stress. Last week’s five-area average price came in at $174 which was $2 higher for the week in the best price in five weeks. The early week cash trade outlook is steady/firm. Box beef values on Monday had choice higher by $1.67 while select lost $0.17. The choice/select spread widened to a $19.47 choice premium.

The weekly grading percent report revealed that 83.97% of the Fed cattle killed in the final week of the year graded choice. The average for the year was 72.7%, right at the three-year average. Note that after a sharp increase through the 2010 decade, the choice quality grade has flattened in recent years. In the face of bullish weather news, live cattle may have peaked its initial recovery rally from the November lows at yesterday’s morning highs for an earlier seasonal high, and now a corrective B wave setback is in the works. Any midweek rally will likely get sold at retracement levels when measured to yesterday’s high watermark.