Mixed start for Thursday.
Grain prices are the reverse of yesterday morning, with soybeans and wheat drifting while corn shows minor strength. First notice day deliveries were expectedly large in Chicago wheat at 1347 contracts and as expected for oats at 184 contracts. There were no December corn, soy oil, or soymeal delivery tenders. Traders will today gauge how Chicago wheat futures sort through the cash wheat deliveries and which hands the receipts are delivered to.
USDA Ag Sec Vilsack said he believes the US Treasury Dept will release guidance to allow for corn-based sustainable aviation fuel by the end of the year. Vilsack said he expects Chinese purchases of corn to rise over time but that US Ag exports must diversify and not be reliant on one or two markets.
As of 7:30, there was no announcement yet from OPEC, which was supposed to have been announced by 7:00 a.m. this morning. Most expect them to agree to output cuts of 1 Mil barrels/day in December and early 2024, with Saudi Arabia rolling its voluntary reduction of 1 Mil barrels/day forward. The IEA is forecasting a slowing of world crude oil demand in 2024 due to a slowing of the pandemic economy recovery and rising interest rates having made their effect.
Looking to South America, showers developed in Brazil's central portions in Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paula, and Parana. Accumulations were .25-1.15”, with the remainder of Brazil in the north dry. The forecast models are consistent with near to below-normal rainfall for the northern half of Brazil, with above-normal totals for the South over the next 10 days. The GFS/Canadian models are moving drier than the EU model. The GFS is looking for isolated showers across N Brazil for the next 3-4 days, with accumulations to increase on Monday and continue for the remainder of the week. The 10-day and Brazil rainfall ranges from 1.00-2.00”, which is a bit less than yesterday and is 40% of normal for the wettest time of the year. High temperatures range from the 90s to lower 100s, showing the extreme need for rain.
The recovery in cattle prices continued yesterday, with a steady outlook expected for the opening today. Deferred live in nearby futures have marked the best gains on Wednesday, and today will be key to see if the markets can make three consecutive daily gains when, typically, the opening of the third day of a rally gets sold in the past. Some live sales in the north were quoted at $175, which was $1 lower than last week, and similar trends look to hold for additional business to the end of the week. The CME feeder Index has declined more than $25 since late August. Deferred feeder futures are priced fairly according to deferred cattle/corn spreads. Longer-term, the cattle outlook remains unchanged, with record low feeder cattle inventories prompting a recovery in price. The recent increase in feedlot inventories has weighed on nearby live futures values.