Grains mixed ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday.
The grain trade will be closed this evening, through Thursday, and close Thursday evening. The reopening will occur at 8:30 a.m. Friday morning and then close again at noon, with final settlements at 12:05.
The overnight grain trade was mixed with soybeans retreating on profit-taking, as rains are falling in areas of N Brazil, which have been forecasted, and whenever it rains, it’s always a negative event. Meanwhile, the forecast returns warm and dry after this weekend. There has been a resurgence of tensions between Ukraine and Russia with the recent attack on the Odesa port infrastructure. This has brought support to the wheat market, where funds are holding their shortest net position in three years. According to Constanta port authorities, the Romanian Black Sea port shipped a record 29.4 MMT of grain from Jan-Oct, with Ukraine shipments comprising 40% of the total.
Crude oil prices are tumbling as Israel and Hamas agreed to a temporary ceasefire and the release of 50 hostages. Hostages will be released in stages as negotiations continue. This has reduced tension in the Middle East and is pressuring crude oil substantially with the OPEC meeting still 1 ½ weeks away. This has pushed veg oil prices into retreat after recent gains.
The grain markets are trying to carve out seasonal lows for corn and wheat amid rising US corn export demand and Ukraine’s export difficulties. The uncertainty of soybean production in South America grows with more urgency, as December and the first half of January are the key reproductive stage time windows for the row crops, even later with some due to replanting.
Light to moderate rain is falling across Northern Brazil, but as has been the case in recent days, totals have been disappointing and well below the forecast of the EU weather model of last week. Motto Grosso has so far received .1-.9” with the coverage of rain no better than 45-50%. The Euro had several inches already that should have fallen into today. High temperatures are ranging in the upper 80s with a few lower 100s and far NE Brazil. Forecast models are leading to a drier solution for the northern 2/3’s of Brazil over the next 10-14 days. Daily thunderstorms occur across N and C Brazil into the weekend with 10-day accumulations in the range of 1-1.75”. This rain is 55-75% of normal for this time of year.
Live and feeder cattle were lower on Tuesday, lacking the enthusiasm to inspire better cash trade. Initial bids for the week were quoted at $278-280 on a dressed basis in the north, which is $1-3 lower if it’s taken. Both sides of the trade will likely prefer to have the week's business wrapped up ahead of the holiday. Sellers now have taken a beating in the last month and will probably be more resistant following the recent $7-9 break in the previous four weeks. Live cattle have to endure two more weeks of potential calendar weakness, but by December 7, seasonals turn abruptly higher into the new year.