The start of Turn-around Tuesday has beans firming.
Wheat and corn are finding selling pressure overnight, while soybeans find stability after a 50% correction of last week’s gains. Crop Progress showed that the US corn harvest is 59% complete and the soybean harvest 76% complete. Brazil's planting progress shows 60% planted in Matto Grosso versus 67%, with replanting highly likely on potentially 25% of what’s been planted. Argentine corn planting remains very slow. N Brazil is forecast to be dry.
In Argentina, the presidential front-runner Sergio Massa announced that for the next 30 days, all Argentine exports will be eligible for their export incentive program that benefited soybeans and corn during the past year. Argentine exporters would be able to fix 30% of their export sales at the blue peso rate versus the official government rate. The blue peso reached 1100/1 US dollar late Monday amid the fear of accelerating inflation. Due to the runaway inflation, most Argentine farmers will likely continue to hold on to the remaining corn, soybean, and wheat stocks. Consider that 23 years ago, the blue peso and the US dollar traded at par. Massa is using his position as the economic minister to propel his presidential bid ahead of the November 19 runoff election.
Ukraine ag ministry estimates that 700,000 MTs of Ukraine grain have been exported via their new Black Sea route that hugs the Eastern European coastline. Previously, they were shipping around 3.0 MMT a month via the UN-backed Black Sea corridor. Russia continues to be ruthless in attacking Ukrainian port infrastructure, but the current export route appears to be working.
Israel continues to shell Gaza and promises that it will dismantle Hamas as the Palestinian death toll is now estimated to be near 6,000. Crude oil futures are mixed this morning near $85.40, as no Middle Eastern oil has either been threatened or embargoed. The US dollar recovered as the European October PMI slipped to 46.5 versus 47.2 in September, suggesting fresh weakness for European manufacturers.
Below-normal rainfall is anticipated across Northern Brazil, with showers between late Wednesday and into the weekend. A drier and Brazilian weather pattern returns Saturday as a high-pressure Ridge holds across the region. Shower chances for Argentina, with the best chance occurring during the closing days of October, are still in the forecast. Southern Brazil, unfortunately, stays exceptionally wet with regular daily rainfall chances, affirming their wheat crop will be feed quality.
Live and feeder cattle tumbled to sharp losses yesterday, with the February cattle trading limit down. Due to the limited trade, today’s session limits expand to $10 for live cattle and $12.25 for feeders. Negotiated fed cattle markets were quiet on Monday, but now a weaker outlook is offered for the week given the collapse at the board. Feed yards are looking for at least steady trade, but given the weakness, hedged feed yards will sell $2-3 lower bids and capture the basis.
The break has washed out stale longs and has less to do with actual numbers in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. The difference between the October 1 feedlot inventory and the average estimate was less than one day slaughter and was certainly not worth eroding the price by $6.00. Last week’s COT report showed that funds were net long positions in cattle but were down to 84,000 contracts, which was the lowest since March. The 200-day moving average for December cattle comes in at $176, which is just above the summer low.