Grain prices universally moved higher overnight.
Grain prices moved higher overnight, led by rising energy values and improving interior corn, soybean, and wheat bids at major market areas. Reduced barge freight has worked to trim US fob premiums, with US and Brazilian corn now offered at even money this morning. Argentine corn is no longer quoted for delivery into February. Brazilian soybeans are not yet quoted for February arrival amid their uncertainty of planting dates due to the ongoing drought.
Motto Grasso’s soybean crop, which is the first one to be harvested, is now looking at a harvesting date in the second half of February/early March. The current EU model is drier in Matto Grosso and Goias next week compared to yesterday's solution. Eventually, rain should arrive as the tropical latitudes of Brazil should get rain coming in November, but the current debate and concern nearby is the seeding dates, replanting of the early crop, and the duration that the US soy exports will have little or no competition for demand as we roll well into February. This means the USDA is at risk of already slashing exports continually and into the last report too much, given that the crush is on the rise and can also affect the carryout.
President Biden flew to Israel and met with Netanyahu (with several countries refusing to meet with him in the Middle East), indicating that the US will continue supporting Israel. Crude oil continues to rise (up around +2.30) as tensions mount in the Middle East. API Crude Oil Stocks yesterday was down -4.4 mln bbls compared to +12.9 mln bbls last week and Gas Stocks are down -1.6 mln bbls vs +3.6 mln bbls last week. Overnight price rise in crude oil was tied to Iran stating oil sales should end to Israel. The price retreat from overnight highs is tied to the reality that other OPEC members can ramp up production. Saudi Arabia is not a friend of Iran.
High winds are becoming a problem for some states, with downed corn showing up. Weather models indicate harvest will come to a halt October 25-29 when rains of 1-3” will become prominent in some areas like E KS, MO, IA, IL, and the Great Lakes area. The coming rains will stabilize River levels and Northern locations and as original boost of soil moisture across the HRW belt.
Cattle and feeder cattle futures were moderately higher yesterday, with a steady outlook offered for this morning. Negotiated fed cattle markets were quiet through Tuesday other than a few sales at 188 in Nebraska reported on Monday, which was $3.00 higher than last week. For now, a very small number traded in the north at $293 on a dressed basis, up $1 from last week. Cattle feeders are watching beef prices rise and are expecting show lists to fetch $1-3 higher this week. Box beef prices built on Monday's strong gains along with yesterday's choice, $0.47 higher at $305.14, with select picking up $1.43 at $270.63. These are record values for mid-October. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report has early estimates for on feed and placements at just below 100% while marketings are near 91%.