Soybeans add to gains overnight after friendly NOPA report.
Grain prices are mixed this morning as soybeans continue the recovery towards the post-October WASDE crop report high on a friendly NOPA crush yesterday that showed stocks at the lowest levels in nine years for bean oil. Biodiesel production is expected to be up 40% next year, and soybean oil will lead the complex. More processing facilities will come online in 2024 and 2025.
Wheat has softened with funds trying to defend their position, while the basis for SRW wheat has improved from 77 under from early September on the December contract to 57 under yesterday. India’s wheat prices have spiked due to demand ahead of large festival periods and tight supplies. This may cause the government to release more stockpiles and reduce tariffs to make purchases affordable ahead of general elections. Look for India to be a more frequent importer, with another 2-4 MMTs of wheat purchased in the 2023/24 crop year.
Corn is in the throes of harvest pressure, with harvest at 45% complete. Corn will need to get to 60% harvested in order to shake off the daily and weekend selling pressure before it can mount a more meaningful recovery price lift.
Soybean inspections on Monday surged to 73.9 Mil Bu, putting us now 25 Mil Bu ahead of last year’s inspections pace despite the USDA’s export estimate for 2023/2020 for the calls for a 237 MBU reduction in exports. This will start to become more of an attention grabber as the less-than-perfect start for the growing season in Brazil starts to capture more attention, and our export season is likely extended into February 2024. Also, dryness in Brazil is impacting the Amazon River basin barge traffic.
The 11-15 day forecast for the Central US offers a Trough across the Central US and near to above normal rainfall with near to above normal temperatures in this time period. The timing of rain will be ideal for improving the Mississippi River flows, improving the basis for grain, and providing moisture for the winter wheat as the corn/soybean harvest ends.
Live and feeder cattle were lower on Monday, but a steady better start is anticipated this morning. Cash trade of 188 and Nebraska should provide a higher start for the cattle trade this morning. Box beef values yesterday had choice jumping $3.87 to $304.67 and select was $171 higher at $277.20. The choice/select spread widened to $27.47. December live cattle are back above the 50-day MA and could extend their recovery back to 190.00 with improving cash.