Ukraine stays focused on moving grain.
Soybean prices pressed higher overnight, follow-through on yesterday’s reversal action, but found resistance at the old to 1282 low range that prompted a retreat from those gains. Wheat and corn softened overnight as Ukraine finds ways to move grain. Ukraine indicated that another dozen vessels are ready to use the alternative humanitarian shipping corridor. Ukraine says it will do whatever is needed to ensure the safe passage of civilian ships in their waters.
Yesterday, it was announced that China purchased 220K MT of US soft red winter wheat this week, indicating their need to diversify origins due to a lack of Australia’s exportable supplies from drought. There are rumors that China is seeking more cargoes of SRW wheat as it is the cheapest in the world with freight included.
Yesterday, rates for the 30-year mortgages rose to the highest level since 2000, hitting 7.53%. Interest being paid on the 30-year US treasury bonds is now above 5% for the first time since 2007. The US dollar softened yesterday after hitting 107.00 with the removal of speaker McCarthy from the House, causing a sense of polarization as to the government’s ability to produce a meaningful budget and avoid another shutdown by November 17.
The Brazilian weather forecast is even drier than previously alluded to as Northern Brazil remains with little to no rains and ongoing heat, with heavy flooding least through southern Brazil. Also, Argentina has no meaningful chance of rain for another two weeks. The South American weather pattern is stuck in the concerning hot/dry forecast that can shift attitudes toward improving production out of South America this winter.
Yesterday's live, and feeder cattle trade was under heavy liquidation pressure from the funds. December cattle fell below the 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-August and only the second time since early May. Feeder cattle suffered even larger losses, with November feeder cattle dropping to the 100-day moving average of $250. Late cash trade on Tuesday was $1 lower for the week at $182 in the South and at $183 in the North. It’s expected we will see similar trends for the rest of the week. The 100-day moving average for December cattle is at $182.