Wheat and corn produce overnight strength.
Wheat and corn lead overnight gains as soybean sag with China off on their Golden Week Holiday, limiting export interest. Global cash markets are only slightly lower, digesting Friday’s USDA crop report inputs. Meanwhile, Russian wheat is trading at $235/MT via private deals, not government sanctioned, with EU wheat trading $1.50 softer at 234/MT, above its September low of 230.
The government passed a Continuing Resolution to keep the government open through November 17, which means we will see the October 12 crop report and the November crop report, the last production data we see for the year. The December report is supply/demand, but the Argentine and Brazilian numbers will be for production and will be released in their respective countries.
Mississippi River levels continue to post a logistical challenge with very low levels at an important time for shipping corn and bean exports. This means in order for exports to remain productive, and in the case of corn, the basis to farmers will be lowered.
Ukraine’s Farms Minister indicated that the new “humanitarian corridor” that hugs the coastal waters of NATO countries has significantly lowered freight rates as more ships continue to utilize the new route. Rumors of Chinese corn purchases for November/December Ukraine continue, but the thoughts are the Marine freight could run to $45/MT. Five vessels have proceeded into the new Ukrainian corridor to load goods and grain. Russia has continued to attack against Ukraine's port infrastructures but has yet to close Ukraine's ports to grain trade fully.
The South American weather is taking on more importance with each passing week regarding planting progress and yield potential. The pattern to date has been abnormal, with record heat and ongoing dryness across Northern Brazil and Argentina. Some early planted beans will likely have to be replanted, as some farmers still delayed plantings, pushing the safrinha corn planting into the end of the first quarter, at the risk of the reproduction cycle.
World weather continues to keep northern Brazil and Argentina dry, with heavy rains to better Parana. Meanwhile, Australian rainfall is confined to the far southeastern crop areas with hurricane-like storms to produce strong winds. Limited rain for Russian wheat areas is forecasted for another two weeks.
Live and feeder cattle tumbled lower last week, and a mixed outlook is offered for this morning’s early trade. Feeder cattle experienced a $9.00 loss last week, while live cattle for December were down almost $3.50. Last week, the cash feeder Index set a record high of $254.10 but ended the week $1.11 lower at $252.11. The cash index has lifted over $50 from early May, narrowing the spread to autumn futures. 2024 feeder cattle futures continue to suggest even higher prices for next year, with premiums still carrying $13-24 for spring in late summer feeder cattle.
The cattle futures market has been carrying the premiums to the cash market for months now, but new cash highs will need to be seen to support renewed rally vigor on the board. Major support for December cattle is at the 50-day MA, which is at $186.00.