The USDA Crop Report is out today at 11:00 a.m.
It’s USDA Crop Report Day today, with the September 1 Stocks report and the Final Small Grains report out at 11:00 a.m. today. The trade has spent most of the evening firm, with corn rallying to within ½ cent of the September high of 490.2 before retreating slightly. First notice day for October soybean products showed no soy oil delivered and 275 contracts of soy meal tendered for delivery. No strong stoppers were initially seen for the trade, as Cargill tender 200 contracts and another 75 by ADM. Overnight soybean meal was down $4.00 a ton while soybean oil rallied.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicated a dire need for rain across Argentina, with wheat entering its reproductive phase. Private Argentine analysts have cut their 2023 Argentine wheat crop to 15 MMTs, while the USDA holds their estimate at 16.5 MMTs. In the dryness and heat, just 7% of the Argentine corn crop is planted, which is half of the normal planting rate. The outlook for rain across Argentina is poor for another two weeks with temps seasonally warming.
Indonesia’s Palm Oil Association reported July palm oil exports were up +21.8% from the same month last year. Indonesia’s Trade Ministry raised the first half of October crude palm oil price to $827.37/MT from $798.83/MT the last half of September. China’s Moon Festival begins today, and Golden Week starts on Monday, which may keep the PRC out of the markets for a few days.
NATO officials have condemned the Russian Danube River attacks, saying that they are reckless and destabilizing so close to NATO territory. Romania reported the government has approved adding more military observation points and air defenses along the Danube River to monitor Russian drone attacks targeting Ukrainian ports.
Some rainfall is anticipated to happen next week in areas of northern Brazil that will help commence soybean planting, but it will not be enough. Meanwhile, above-normal temperatures will persist across Northern Brazil. Meanwhile, limited rainfall exists for the next 10 days for Ukraine and Russian winter wheat crops with the hope for potential improvement in the 10-15 day period. Rains in the southeastern part of Australia will help some of the wheat crop and Victoria, otherwise, the bulk of Australian wheat remains dry under heavy heat.
Another day of a robust recovery in cattle after the classic 2-3 day pullbacks that have occurred, cattle rebounding sharply. Cash cattle markets were quiet on Thursday following early week trade, with trends so far steady in the South at $183 and $1-2 lower on both live and dressed sales in the North at $184 and $290. There is inventory for sale, and additional trade this week will likely follow earlier week trends. This week’s 5-area average dear price is near $183, and relative to the cash market, the CME has built significant premiums. While prices are at record highs, CME contracts are just $1-2 over the five-year averages.
The CME rally has stalled as of late, waiting for the cash related to resume. This still allows for record cattle prices into the fourth quarter and even higher as we roll into 2024. Recall the cash average rally from the third-quarter low into the end of the fourth quarter is anywhere from $14-18, which gives more potential upside into the new year.
Yesterday's Third Quarter All Hogs and Pigs Report was a little negative to pre-report estimates. All hogs came in at 100% of year ago, kept for breeding was 99%, with kept formarketings at 100%. This will prompt a softer start to trade.