Grains are indicated higher to restart trading.
Opening indications for the restart of the grain trade after July 4 is soybeans and corn 2-4 higher, while wheat is called 3-6 higher. Disappointing crop condition ratings Monday afternoon for soybeans/corn/spring wheat and a dry weather forecast for portions of the N Plains and the northern half of the Midwest are prompting the firm start.
Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress showed corn conditions up 1% to 51% G/E and soybean conditions down -1% to 50% G/E. Winter wheat conditions were unchanged at 40% G/E, while spring wheat conditions were down -2% to 48% G/E.
USDA Monthly Grain Crushings indicated 437.5 mbu of corn was used for ethanol production in May vs 446.6 mbu last year. April corn used for ethanol was revised slightly lower. This data indicates that the USDA is too high in its annual estimate. The USDA also released the Monthly Oilseed & Crush Report and it showed a May US soybean crush of 189.3 mbu, slightly below market expectations of 189.8 mbu. Soyoil stocks were lower than expected at 2.386 billion lbs vs. estimates of 2.437 billion lbs.
The UN Trade Development Secretary said a group of UN negotiators may travel to Russia before the Black Sea deal expires to make every effort for an extension. Russia said they have not made a final decision on extending the grain corridor. They recently rejected an EU proposal to allow the Russian Ag Bank to reconnect to the global financial system, SWIFT. The Black Sea Grain Corridor deal expires on July 18th.
The Central US weather forecast is moving a little dryer over the next 10 days with limited rainfall for the N Plains and the northern half of the Midwest. Temperatures though are seasonally cool with highs ranging in the upper 70s to the mid-90s. Ridge riding storm systems are being forced southward by cool/dry Canadian air to the north, producing rain from Kansas eastward, including MO and the southern halves of IL/IN in all of KY/TN. Rain accumulations over the next 10 days range from. 5-2.50” with locally heavier amounts.
Live and feeder cattle trade on Monday closed mixed with a steady outlook anticipated for today’s opening. Cash markets were quiet, but better interest is expected to develop today. August live cattle have now narrowed the difference to the cash market and feed yards be looking for higher cash prices this week. Fed supplies remain tight while estimated slaughter margins remain positive by nearly $290/head. The box beef market started out better for the week with Choice up $0.62 Monday and Select gaining $0.67. The choice/select spread remains historically high at a $34 choice premium. This is $9 higher than 2022 and a record for early July. August live cattle are $5.00 below the expiration of the June contract at $181.50.