Ukraine continues to inflict damage on Russia.

Grain prices ended the morning session mixed with wheat softer while soybeans tried to maintain a firmer trend overnight. For the second consecutive night in a row, Ukraine targeted Russia’s Black Sea fleet and knocked down Russian air defense systems near the town of Yevpatoria overnight. There were also reports of other attacks on Crimea, and Russia closed the Kerch Bridge for four hours. If Russian shipments of wheat are impacted to global customers, wheat’s balance sheet will get very tight, which could be a bullish setup considering funds are holding a large net short position in Chicago wheat.

Rosario Exchange cut its forecast for the 23/24 Argentine wheat harvest to 15 MMT compared to 15.6 MMT in the prior estimate (due to ongoing drought). They kept 23/24 soybean and corn production estimates steady at 48 MMT and 56 MMT, respectively.

The NOPA releases their August Crush report tomorrow with estimates ranging from 168169 Mil Bu of soybeans, which would be a near-record total. Soy oil stocks are forecasted at 1.460-1.48 Bil pounds, down from the July total of 1.527 Bil pounds, on record large domestic demand. US soyoil stocks are getting close to pipeline requirements as the rapid build-out of US renewable diesel takes up supplies until new soy processing capacity is brought online in the last half of 2024.

Australia has a very dry forecast for the next month due to strengthening El Nino, which will impact crops and limit exports in the coming year. This is setting up further cuts for Australian wheat, canola, and barley, limiting their grain export ability and 23/24. Northern Brazil soybean seeding remains on hold as complete dryness engulfs 75% of the Brazilian soybean-producing area, forcing farmers to wait for rain, which now looks to be delayed until October 1. Meanwhile, the Australian drought with extreme heat is developing across the entire growing region. Southern Brazil in Río Grande do Sul remains inundated with rainfall, transforming their wheat crop into feed quality.

Live and feeder cattle futures were putting in a lower day yesterday, with feeder cattle pacing the decline. Some light cash activity was reported in IA at $184, along with Nebraska, a few trades at the same price. Cattle slaughtered midweek totaled 370,000 head, up 3,000 head from two weeks ago but 6,000 head less than last year. Meanwhile, box beef prices were slipping yesterday for choice, down $0.48, while select jumped $3.41. US export demand remains soft, while domestic demand has held firm at historic prices. Supplies continue to dwindle in the coming months, which will underpin breaks.