The grain trade is mixed from overnight action.
Grain futures are producing a mixed reaction from yesterday’s trade this morning, while soybeans are finding support, specifically in the old crop position. Traders are contemplating how much weather premium needs to remain with the forecast for August reaching into mid-month, producing better-than-normal precipitation and temperatures that are normal to slightly cooler.
Yesterday afternoon StoneX released their production estimates, with corn yield at 177 BPA and soybeans at 50.5 BPA. The corn yield would be a test of prior record US crop yields, while the soybean estimate is friendly considering how tight ending stocks will become on the confirmation of 83 million acres planted.
Despite Russian attacks on Ukraine's inland ports, Romania’s Danube River Agency said the river had a record number of Ukraine ships in May and June and expects record volumes this month.
It’s being reported in India's Economic Times that India’s working out a potential record-large purchase of Russian wheat that may be as large as nine MMTs. Earlier this year, rumors are suggesting that India will need to import 3-5 MMT of wheat in the 2023/24 crop year. If this develops is large as nine MMTs, such a purchase would greatly reduce Russia’s available wheat stocks to its normal sales positions and, in effect, be a larger world wheat trade than the USDA has pegged.
The Midwest 10-day forecast offers no extreme Midwest heat, with the Central US high-pressure Ridge will be compressed Southwest by a trough across the Hudson Bay in Canada. This produces a NW upper airflow through the Midwest and additional Ridge riding systems, which is a typical summer weather pattern. High temperatures range in the upper 70s to lower 90s, with nighttime lows in the 60s low 70s.
Live and feeder cattle experienced a lower trade yesterday, with a softer outlook this morning. The cash feeder Index gained $0.19 on Wednesday and is within a dime of all-time highs. Asking prices in the cash market this week remain higher in all regions as heat stress and losses have weighed on production. Cattle slaughtered midweek totaled 371,000 head, down 2000 from last week and I thousand less than a year ago. The choice beef cutout gave back some of Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday but is still holding on to weekly gains paying $303.