Russia targets more infrastructure on the Danube River overnight

Overnight grain futures reacted higher as Russia again attacked Ukraine’s inland port on the Danube River near Izmail and damaged grain silos. This is across the river from NATO member Romania. This had Chicago wheat futures almost $0.30 higher at one point, while corn traded $0.15 higher. Overnight weather forecasts continue to maintain a cooler/wetter trend, with the pattern being very active, with rain over the next 10 days trimming overnight gains and pushing soybeans lower.

Putin and Turkey’s Erdogan had a phone call expressing that Turkey will continue to seek diplomacy to reinstate the Black Sea shipping pact. Russia said they are willing to return to the deal once their demands are met for their own grain and fertilizer exports.
Going forward, the question is whether Ukraine will retaliate against Russia and attack the Kerch Bridge, which, if collapsed, would close the Azov Sea for export. 30-35% of Russia’s grain export capacity has to pass under this bridge. This is the real risk for grain exports out of the region.

FC Stone is rumored to be releasing their estimates for the August corn, soybean, and wheat yield/production data after the close today we will start also receiving other private analytical firms over the next several days ahead of next Friday’s August 11 WASDE/USDA August crop report.

The 10-day forecast for the Midwest offers no extreme heat compared to what last week’s models were implying. A high-pressure Ridge will elongate across the southern US today and slowly be compressed Southwest by a Trough across the Hudson Bay in Canada. This produces a northwest upper airflow through the Midwest and additional Ridge riding storm systems, which is a typical summer weather pattern for the first half of August. Temps will range from the upper 70s to the lower 90s, with evening lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

Live and feeder cattle produced solid gains on Tuesday, with a firm outlook offered for early trade this morning. The cash feeder Index gained $0.83 to $244.69, which is the highest price since December 2014. The index is just $0.30 from the record high. Negotiated fed cattle markets were quiet, with fed supplies thought to be down from last week, and asking prices are expected to be higher in all regions. Yesterday’s choice beef cutout ended $4.32 higher, with select gaining $1.87. This jump in beef values is due to Packers raising offers in anticipation of having to pay up for show lists this week. October cattle have proven $178.00 as key support. 184-185 on October cattle will be key resistance that will be challenged and if not overcome, could create a secondary selloff.