Grains lower on follow-through Thursday weakness.
Grain prices tumbled lower overnight on yesterday’s poor technical closes and rains developing for the Ohio Valley. First notice day for deliveries is Monday for August soybeans, and recent sharp gains were severely corrected yesterday into the overnight. Russia did not attack any further grain infrastructures overnight as it did early in the week, but Ukraine claims that Russia is threatening civilian vessels in the Black Sea, urging the international community to call this an act of terrorism.
It’s anticipated that corn and soybean ratings will fall one-3% from the G/E category on Monday do this week’s hot/dry weather. Farmers will start to be asked to estimate their August 1 crop yields early next week for the upcoming WASDE August 11 crop report. The NASS does not conduct actual Field surveys until September, when ear and pod weights can be better assessed.
The North Dakota Wheat Crop Quality tour estimated yields at 47.4 BPA versus 49.1 last year and the five-year average of 40.1 BPA. The yield potential is better than expected in a year that had experienced early heat and dryness in the eastern and northern portions of North Dakota.
It will be hot across the Midwest for another several days, with high temps running 3-8 degrees above normal. Temps will be in the 80s to lower 100s. Quincy, Illinois, reached 100° on Wednesday, while North Platte airport reached 102°. The mid 90° highs extend well north into northern Minnesota. The GFS model offers below-normal totals of precipitation for most of the Midwest after this morning's rains end with a high-pressure Ridge elongating from the Intermountain West into the Eastern Delta next week. This will push Canadian air into the NE US and trim Central US highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Excessive heat is in the forecast return August 10-15.
It was a lower trade in the cattle market on Thursday, while feeders ended up a little higher on the fall in corn and wheat. The cash trade remained quiet through Thursday, with feed yards holding out for no worse than steady prices. Extreme heat missile has reduced carcass weights and feedlots the additional money to offset weight losses. Feed yards will likely settle for even money this week, while packer bids at $175 find itself have found no interest.
Beef exports and sales are down sharply from a year ago amid record US prices. Our cumulative exports are now down 14% from last year’s record pace, while outstanding sales are 35% lower at a five-year low. Total commitments are sorry 9% of a year ago versus the USDA forecast of calls for a 9% decline in annual exports. The correction occurring in live cattle is still inside the previous corrective ranges with a close below 178.00 October cattle confirming a top.