Grain prices stumble on long-term weather model hopes.
Grain futures turned lower to sharply lower overnight as the 11-15 day models offer some showers in seasonal temps for the N Midwest. Also, Turkish Pres. Erdogan indicated that he had hoped that he could persuade Pres. Putin into returning/extending the Black Sea Grain Corridor deal. The problem is that so much damage has already been inflicted upon some of the ports, and with further bombing into the port areas, would it even matter? Russia continued the bombing of Ukraine for the 4th night in a row, targeting grain terminals and storage facilities in Odessa.
World rice prices rose sharply yesterday on the news that India will ban the export of 17 MMTs of basmati rice. This news is causing world importers to freeze and for other exporters to be cautious and offering prices did all the uncertainty. Some are thinking India will alter its decision, but the Indian presidential elections are to be held next April, and rising food prices are a hot domestic topic. And has purchased several cargoes of Russian wheat late last week.
The Canadian Prairies remain locked in a worsening drought, with crop estimates being slashed again to the ongoing dryness and next week’s heat. The harvest of Canadian crops is expected to start early during the first half of August. According to China’s Ag Minister, rains in northeastern China have given some drought relief, but cautioned that risks remain with persisting El Nino conditions.
The overnight forecast is slightly cooler/wetter in the extended-range modeling beyond August 1. However, that agreement in the extended range forecast is less than certain, as the GFS has a hurricane coming into New Orleans on July 31. Best guesses is that a Ridge of high pressure holds across the Intermountain West and into the W Plains, but the extreme heat will be a problem for the Midwest for 5-6 days. There is likely to be below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperature patterns that run into the end of July, with moderation in the heat and showers for Lake states in early August.
Live and feeder cattle futures closed lower yesterday with a steady outlook for live cattle this morning and firmer for feeder cattle on the sharply lower feed grains. Yesterday live cattle futures had seen new record highs again before sharp reversals into the close. Cash trade picked up on Thursday, with live sales in the north quoted at $187-190, and the dressed trade was quoted $3-8 higher for the week at $295-300. Limited sales in the South are quoted $3 higher for the last week at $1 80.