WASDE crop report out today at 11:00 a.m.
Grain prices are higher this morning, led by the soybeans again ahead of the July WASDE crop report out at 11:00 a.m. this morning. NASS will update winter wheat and other small grain crop estimates along with US and world Supply/demand forecasts, which will include the updated June seeding acreage report.
Highly anticipated is what the USDA will use for crop production with current crop ratings. The average analysts’ guess for corn is 176.1 BPA, while soybeans are at 51.2 BPA. The new crop carry out for corn is guessed at 2.249 Bill while soybeans are 195 Mil. Wheat is 568 Mil.
China continues to pursue Brazilian soybeans for August/September delivery at $0.50 under while Brazilian FOB corn basis offers have started to back off. Brazilian corn for September/October is offered at $.45 over Chicago, with the Gulf at $0.70 over. Russian FOB wheat offers are slightly from today at $235-237/MT.
Due to their ongoing drought, Saskatchewan and Manitoba’s crop yield potential is in freefall. Condition ratings are expected to decline sharply amid the lack of rain in the coming weeks. Canada could again become a sizable import of US corn for feed. The Canadian canola crop could fall to 17 MMTs on the drought, producing additional demand for US soy oil for renewable diesel.
Ridge-riding storms will push across South Dakota and north central Midwest this morning, with rainfall totals showing some areas getting up to 1.50” with areas further east ranging from .10-.90”. The rain extends into N Illinois/Indiana and includes the northern half of Iowa. The remainder of the Midwest is dry, with secondary showers will be across S Arkansas. The forecast has diminished the intensity of Midwest heat, with highs ranging from the 80s to lower 100s in week two of the upcoming forecast. The models are split on the exact location of a high-pressure Ridge that forms across the south-central US next week. The Ridge elongates and retrogrades back West late in week two.
Live and feeder cattle pushed sharply higher yesterday, with all live cattle contracts making new contract highs. April 2024 cattle pushed to a new historic high of $188.20. Feeder cattle futures stop short of their contract highs, with today’s WASDE crop report giving feeders pause to wait to see what the USDA uses for yields. Box beef prices extended the recent losses, with Choice down $1.69 and Select off $2.09. The choice cutout has now lost $16 for the month and select is off $13. Negotiated fed cattle markets are still untraded, but feed yards will be looking for higher prices this week to the CME push to new highs. Feedlots are bullish and seeking much higher offers than last week.