Russia experiences leadership turmoil.

Grain futures opened last night with mixed volatility, but by morning are all higher to sharply higher for soybeans and wheat. Returning strength overnight came from a Russian Coup attempt by the Wagoner group that throws Geopolitical concern for Putin’s future. The ability of the Wagoner Group to so easily capture and push near Moscow was a shock. The mutiny is causing world wheat traders to reassess the geopolitical stability of the world’s largest wheat exporter which is Russian. Also, critical rainfall over the weekend failed to materialize south of I-80 in the central and southern Midwest. Weekend rains were mostly north of the Interstate and missed most of the critical Michigan growing areas.

This afternoon’s crop rating data is anticipated to drop the good/excellent category by 2-4%. Needed rainfall is needed in abundance in early July, especially in areas that are still missing it, or else the trade will start anticipating a sub 170 BPA corn yield. Currently, yield guesses are running in the 172-175 BPA range. SC Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, and the southern two-thirds of Illinois need rain through 4 July.

Early guesses are coming out for this Friday’s June 1 Grain Stocks and Acreage Report. Corn stocks are put at 4.255 Bil Bu, wheat 611 Mil Bu with soybeans at 812 Mil Bu. The 2023 planted acres estimate has corn at 90 one .8 Mil acres, 87.8 Mil acres of soybeans, and 10.5 Mil acres of spring wheat, with US all wheat seeding estimates being at 49.7 mill acres. These data results come out Friday at 11:00 a.m.

Central US rain forecasts dry out for the Midwest this week, with the next storm system due late this week from Friday into Saturday. A Ridge riding system passes across the northern Midwest and produces .2-.9” of rain. Central and southern Midwest crop areas will be shortchanged which will likely produce another drop in crop ratings next Monday, July 3. Central Midwest temperatures will average near to above normal with highs in the 80s to mid-90s the extreme heat occurring in the South in TX/LA, OK, and KS with 100° highs there likely.

Live cattle and feeder cattle were lower last week with most live contracts closing near the better levels of the week, while feeder cattle were still sharply lower. Negotiated fed cattle trade was lower last week with live sales in any $$1-5 lower at $182-186 while dressed trades were $6-7 lower at $289-290. The southern plains were $2 lower at $180-182 with the IA/MN region off $2-3 at $184-185. The early week cash outlook is steady to lower. Last week’s cattle slaughter was 649,000 head which was the largest weekly kill since January but was still 19,000 head less than a year ago and 13,000 under the five-year average. Box beef values seasonally turned lower last week as domestic demand contracts with the choice dropping $9 for the week to $334 and the select was off $11 at $300. Even with last week’s decline, both values are a record for late June. August futures are carrying a substantial discount to the cash market that should offer support in the 166-168 range.