New crop corn and beans push new monthly highs overnight.

Grain futures turned higher Wednesday night and did not look back, with double-digit gains seen on new crop corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat. 10-day forecasts are still looking for rain into the final week of June, and the dry Easter Minnesota/Wisconsin/eastern Iowa/Illinois donut continues to come up empty. As typical, the 11-15 day period continues to hold out promising hope, but this has been going on since the end of May.

The Rosario Grain Exchange late Wednesday lowered its Argentine soybean crop estimate to 20.5 MMTs versus 21.5 previously and compared to the USDA’s projected 25. If this is realized, then their crush margin will be trimmed by some 3-4 MMTs compared to the USDA’s forecast, and meal exports in 23/24 will be no larger than 18 MMTs. Later today, NOPA released their May crush numbers at 11:00 a.m. and should be a record for the month of May.

Better rain chances are offered for France, Germany, and Poland in the next 10 days, but moisture is still anticipated to bypass Ukraine’s corn belt and much of central Russia. Follow-up rainfalls across northern Europe throughout July will be needed to come back, widening soil moisture deficits.

Black Sea vessel movement remains sluggish, and the current inference of the export corridor is that it will expire in just 30 days. Cargill’s CEO doubts the Black Sea grain deal will continue, and they will shift to South American grain. This has become a mute market point for now, as Ukraine has built alternative export avenues over the past 15 months.

The Midwest forecasts continue to have the EU and GFS models suggesting that over the next 10 days, rains of any measurable quantities will miss the donut area, which describes the dry pocket of the Midwest. Indiana/Ohio and Kentucky will receive rain this weekend. Temperatures remain seasonal, with IA/Illinois next week Wednesday-Friday projected in the mid-/upper 80s.

Live and feeder cattle prices spilled lower again after a two-day bounce and have a weaker outlook offered this morning, especially for feeder cattle with feed grains sharply higher this morning. Cash markets were still quiet on Wednesday, with initial sales having been a little lower than last week, but volumes are too late to call a trend. Choice beef gained a $1.00 yesterday and is up $5 for the week. Initially, August live cattle closed below the 10-day moving average for the first time since early May, which may create further technical liquidation.