Grains retreat overnight from early week big gains.
Grain prices are lower across the board this morning after the weather market push peaked Tuesday mid-morning, which is typical in weather cycles, with selling occurring on the added incentive of profit-taking ahead of the upcoming three-day weekend. Markets reopen Monday evening, June 19.
Today is US Central Bank decision day. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep the lending rates steady at 5-5.25% as it assesses the economic impact of 10 consecutive rate hikes during the past year. Whether the Fed is on extended pause will raise rates another .25% in July is still being debated.
The EPA has been granted a one-week delay through a court order with Growth Energy on announcing their Renewable Fuel Obligations (RVOs) until June 21. The US biofuel industry is arguing that its preliminary advanced biofuel mandate proposals which were offered in December for 2023 at 20.82 Bil gallons, 20 2421.87 Bil gallons, and 2025 at 22.68 Bil gallons, were too low. The industry is working on convincing the EPA/Biden administration to adjust its advanced biofuel mandates upward to reflect better the massive buildout of the US renewable diesel industry.
NOPA will release its May soybean crush report tomorrow. Some estimates have the crush rate at 174-175 Mil Bu, which is up from April’s 173.2 Mil Bu due to the extra day of crush. A year ago, the member processors had crushed 171.1 Mil Bu of soybeans.
The Central US rainfall pattern remains below normal across the N Midwest, with a high-pressure Ridge holding across Central Canada. This continues to limit rainfall across MN, WI, MI, IA in the northern half of IL into June 24. The GFS model is drier across Illinois and the northern half of IN versus the EU model. The Midwest will dry into Friday when rain chances return to the SW and N and E Midwest. The 11-15 day period shows the south-central US Ridge building north, but confidence in the Apple II the Ridge is very depending on model solutions. But if it occurs, this will help move moisture up into the drier areas of the northern Midwest.
Yesterday live and feeder cattle futures closed higher again, with a firm outlook expected for this morning. Live cattle are still un-traded through Tuesday, with strength in the CME having feed yards looking for no less than steady money this week. Box beef values were mixed yesterday after explosive gains, with choice value extending higher by $0.56 while select drifted $0.76.