Grain trade remains erratic overnight.

Grain prices traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, and in the case of soybeans, several times. The trade ended mixed with corn mostly lower, wheat mixed, while old and new crop soybeans are split with strength in old crop weakness and new crop. Obviously, the debate over the US weather going into mid to late June is all the rage with the EU and GFS models continuing to stick with their respective forecasts. The GFS model overnight brings rain of 2-4 inches across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio in the next 6-15 day period. Meanwhile, the EU models are little changed from yesterday holding meaningful precept until June 16 and confined areas south of the primary corn belt.

Soybean oil strength over the past week has rallied a strong $6.60 from last week’s low, as crush has slowed, and consumption rises. There is also growing concern myself on see it over scrutiny surrounding used cooking oil imports potentially tainted with palm oil or unknown oil. This morning, Germany announced an investigation of the Chinese imports of used oil. UCO has been dominant, replacing traditional veg oils and biofuel production in 2023.

Export interest has Taiwan seeking 56,000 MTs of US-specific corn. Algeria is seeking optional origin corn. Also, there is a release of new crop wheat tenders from Algeria and Egypt in the last week which provides evidence that end-users now opting to step into the spring price break that is occurring.

As stated in the opening comments the GFS and EU weather models continue to the verge on the 6-10 day precept forecast. The GFS continues to maintain high odds of soaking rain into the dry Eastern Midwest next week. The EU and Canadian models keep the rain south and west of the major corn/soybean growing areas. A pattern of below-normal perception will be ongoing across the Canadian Prairies and the northern/Eastern Midwest into June 17 and possibly June 21-22nd if the GFS models do not verify. What is going to occur, it seems universally is at a relatively cooler temps profile will start to be established in the 6-15 day period after causing stress to crops, especially in the Northern Plains.

Live cattle again continued their parabolic rise to new contract highs yesterday, with June cattle trading briefly above $180 to find another week of strong gains in the cash market. The feeder cattle market follows with small gains due to strength in the corn market but still new contract highs. Cash cattle got underway on Tuesday with live sales in Iowa/Minnesota quarter 3-5 higher for the week at $190 and dressed sales were quoted at $295-300. Light sales reported in Nebraska were similar prices in light trade in Texas was up $5 at $182. Box beef pushed sharply higher with gains of $7.21 on choice while select was up $2.71. Cattle prices overbought with no indication of a top, but what’s interesting is over the last eight months the hog market and poultry market both broke sharply lower with the largest blaming factor called weakness in consumer demand. I’m just counting the days when we start to hear this for cattle.