Grain markets brace for another weather Monday.
The grain trade this morning is mixed, heading into another weather weekend. July corn paces the weakness as basis levels started to diminish, as Brazilian corn values again reflect values considerably less once availability arrives in July. Midwest River and CIF corn bids yesterday fell $.02- 0.14/Bu as US export demand stays slow, and merchandisers do not want to be caught with high price supply and whether market. Ethanol bids held steady on a need to originate corn amid limited farmer selling.
The US Senate passed the bipartisan debt ceiling bill, and it will now go to President Biden’s desk for signature. This is supporting the stock market recovery this morning that has the S&P and NASDAQ at the highest prices for the year. Jobs numbers this morning were again considered strong while the unemployment rate upticks to 3.7%. The jobs number again came in high at 339,000 versus an estimate of 190,000. As consistent with prior months, back months will see adjustments lower as the shell game on producing strong job numbers in reducing past numbers continues.
The forecast for the Central Midwest has limited rain for the Midwest/Delta for the next 10-12 days. Thunderstorms are possible for the two days across the Midwest with coverage no greater than ¼ of an inch and 10% coverage. Otherwise, temps will be in the 80s to mid-90s into June 9. The GFS is wetter in the 11-15 day forecast compared to the EU models, which contain the future chances of rain arriving into Iowa, Illinois into midmonth.
An explosive day yesterday for cattle as a June cattle rallied $5.77 and August gains of $4.70 as cash markets saw live cattle and the Texas Panhandle $5-9 higher for the week at $175-180. Meanwhile, Kansas cattle traded $7-9 higher at $178-180. Live cattle sales in Nebraska were at $183-188 with like gains. Box beef values had choice up $0.60 and select down $0.83. The only resistance on the spot chart would be the April cattle high at $177.70 is the only spot historical price target. Yesterday April 2024 cattle closed at a historic 185.87 for a future price that could be hedged. On the charts, live cattle pricing has become euphoric and subject to a price stall out.