Weather dominates ahead of 3-day weekend.
This morning’s grain trade is firm to sharply higher, as the forecast remains dry into June 10. The Midwest/Delta area lacks meaningful rain chances through June 7, adding market premium ahead of the three-day weekend. Also, Russian spring wheat weather forecasts remain dry as well, with no extreme heat yet.
Russia is signaling that they will not support the Black Sea Grain deal in mid-July unless their demands are met. They have been steadfast to the statements yet did approve the Black Sea deal 10 days ago. They continue to want the SWIFT banking system re-instituted, farm machinery parts sales, and fertilizer exports rectified. Ukraine’s new crop wheat export flows would start in mid-July. China’s Foreign Ministry said that they hope the UN-backed grain export corridor can be implemented in a balanced and comprehensive approach. China indicated they would like to cooperate on worldwide food security.
Next week NASS will release the season’s first US corn crop condition report on Monday, with the GD/EX ratings expected to be 69-72%. There typically is no relation between the season’s first rating and to final yield. Today's market pricing weather concerns in ahead of the three-day weekend; any deviation late Monday on the forecast for markets reopening in the evening will stimulate the start of the weather season of sharply lower/higher weekend calls.
The forecast models project limited rainfall for the Midwest/Delta for the next two weeks. The Canadian Prairies will have almost daily chances of rain with accumulations of over an inch. He continues across Canadian prairies amid the high-pressure Ridge aloft, which builds into the Central US over the weekend in the next week. Heat in the Midwest has highs mostly in the 80s with a few mid-90s to close out May. The heat abates in the 11-15 day period, with chances of rain still considered low under a northwest upper airflow.
Live cattle made new contract highs again yesterday in the June, October, and December live cattle contracts, along with fall feeder cattle. May feeder cattle expired yesterday at $208.97 versus $154.7 to last year. Limited cash trade was reported on Thursday following subjective sales on Wednesday, but prices remain higher for the week. Box be found support and was $1.64 higher on choice while select picked up $0.75.
The May Livestock Slaughter report shows that the April cattle kill was down 10% from a year ago and 13% less than in March, but with fewer working days. On a per-day basis, the April kill was 5% less than a year ago, while the average carcass weight was 15 pounds lighter than last year. Commercial beef production was down 11% and at a six-year low, excluding Covid year 2020.