Turn-around Tuesday try to get started in the night session.
Grain futures had a rough-and-tumble night, starting higher to break substantially in the night session and then recovering to new highs in corn and wheat for the week. The selloff was due to the significant progress throughout the Midwest, with corn planting at 81%, soybeans at 66%, and 64% of the spring wheat planted. With farmers likely pushing past the Prevent Plant dates and taking discounts due to the profitability, it’s thought acreage will be well under 1 Mil enrolled.
This morning’s renewed strength in wheat is tied to French milling wheat opening better than yesterday’s new yearly close and rising $4.50/MT this morning, the equivalency of the 13-$0.14 gain, promoting the short covering. Corn is bouncing on the new concern of the arid weather trend that is notable from now through next week, its rainfall will be confined to the Southern Plains and Intermountain West, with no meaningful rain until June 4.
Overnight weakness in wheat, before turning higher, was from a newswire reporting that 210,000 MTs of EU wheat (Polish/German) had been purchased for import into the US from June through August. The German wheat is high protein at 12.5-13.5%. Eastern millers are looking to import EU wheat for their milling needs to the HRW wheat shortage from the drought. Additional German wheat imports are forecasted during the crop year. This will be a cap to recovery rallies as the spring highs in.
Forecast models project limited rainfall for the Midwest and Delta for the next two weeks. The Canadian prairies have several rain chances with accumulations of .25-1.50” in the next 10 days. Heat continues across the Prairies amid a high-pressure Ridge aloft. The Midwest will see limited rainfall until June 5. The Central US temperatures will be variable, with 70s/80s this week, warming occurring into the weekend, and into next week with 80s and a few lower 90s.
Cattle futures stumbled lower on Monday as the COF report was neutral to slightly negative to expectations and had closed at its top end for last week. This brought about profit-taking that was purchased later in the session, promoting a substantial price recovery in the feeder cattle. Cash cattle markets again were quiet to start the week, but active trade is anticipated in the last half of the week. Early outlook of steady with box beef values sharply mixed yesterday. Choice gained $2.80, and Select was $0.51 lower.
Again, the national pasture conditions improved last week, with the national poor/very poor ratings slipping 4% to 29%, down from 37% last week. Conditions in most states have improved, but Nebraska at 55% poor/very poor and Kansas at 50% are well above average for both states. Meanwhile, conditions in Texas improved significantly, with poor/very poor ratings dropping from 51% to 36%.