USDA crop report releases at 11am today.

Estimates for today’s crop report are showing the USDA cutting its 2022/202 corn exports by 20-25 million bushels and raising soybean exports while wheat numbers stay unchanged. USDA estimated the Argentine soybean crop at 41 MMTs last month, now the market is estimating a number closer to 36.5 MMTs. We could see a drop in Argentina’s 2023 corn crop of 4.5 MMTs and bean of 3.6 MMTs. Argentine farmers are abandoning fields and the hot dry weather is supposed to continue. Headlines are alarming, but will the market acknowledge them is the question, or some of the bullishness may already be priced in.

South American weather in Argentina is still showing drought to persist into late march when the rain is severely needed. Brazil is showing signs of moisture in the forecast with the harvest surpassing 50% this week while yields are looking good.

Ukrainian corn planting started last week. Farmers are not excited to start planting with fuel costs and fertilizer supply extremely low and expensive. Wheat, corn and sunflower acres are looking to be cut in half with an increase in soybean acres expected. The corridor is still looking to be intact, and grain will continue to flow. Russia’s supply and price of wheat is putting pressure on our wheat marketing.

Cattle markets are maintaining their strength and holding at good support levels. With today’s WASDE report, we should see a move in the corn market which will have the feeders moving in the opposite direction. Cash market looks to stay firm on tightening supply and seasonal demand approaching.