Grains are lower across the board, recovery bounce ending.
Grain futures are lower this morning as weekly crop progress/condition reports were mixed to slightly bearish for US corn and soybean seeding progress that was slightly ahead of the five-year average. Of course, concern remains that North Dakota’s seating has yet to get fully underway. Disappointment in the soybeans came from China’s April import numbers which were reported at 7.26 MMTs of soybeans, far less than what vessel counts indicated due to new customer procedures, delaying cargoes by as much as 2-3 weeks.
Black Sea cargo inspections for grain in Istanbul have been shut down for the past three days as Ukraine argues that Russia is prematurely ending the agreement. The corridor was to remain open until May 18 to allow vessels to exit. The corridor closure is still being worked on behind closed doors, with Russia being strong-armed to get their demands to continue the pact. If the corridor officially closes, Ukrainian farmers will switch a portion of their corn acreage to oilseeds.
Rain will start in North Dakota again and continue the weekend with forecasted 1.50-3.00” totals. Also, big rains for Texas/ S Oklahoma late this week, but the system is farther south, leaving Kansas/Nebraska in an arid flow. Canadian. Dryness looks to worsen amid limited rain for another 10 days with much above-normal temperatures. Otherwise, an active weather pattern is forecast for the Central US for the next seven days, with shower chances occurring nearly daily in a zonal flowing jet stream. Summer like warmth will speed seed germination/emergence for a favorable start of the 2023 growing season throughout the Midwest.
Cattle and feeder cattle futures were higher on Monday, with a steady outlook offered for the day. Cash markets started the week as they do, quiet, with activity anticipated to start by Wednesday. A steady outlook is anticipated. Box beef values drifted yesterday, with choice down $0.63 while select dropped $3.04. The NASS released its initial range and pasture condition reports on Monday afternoon, showing the national GD/EX ratings at 33% compared to 22% last year. P/VP ratings also improved to 37% versus 52% a year ago. However, the problems still exist in Nebraska and Kansas, where ratings remain horrid. June cattle are hovering above major support near 161.00 and, if breached, could find a liquidation break to near 157.00.