Grains are firmer overnight with outside markets.
The grain trade was higher overnight, along with equities and indexes, as the banking crisis continues to be muted by the Fed’s generous lending of money to whoever and wherever it is needed to mop up the problem. Something to ponder in the banking “crisis” is that 12 Federal Reserve Districts are in the country. There has only been one banking snafu in the New York District, while all other bank issues have been in the San Francisco district, which is where Treasury Secretary Yellen is from. California is such a mess in its residential and commercial real estate markets with the exodus of the population from the state along with the closures of numerous chain and mom-and-pop stores throughout San Francisco, that real estate, along with their ill-timed owning of bonds during interest rate hikes is devastating their solvency. The bulk of the US banking industry in 11 of the 12 districts are solvent and fine.
Today Russia, the UN, and Turkey will be discussing the extension of the Black Sea Grain Corridor in Moscow. After the meetings, Russia goes on an extended holiday due to its Victory Day celebration on May 9. USDA releases its May Crop Report on May 12, which could renew bearish carryout numbers for corn and soybeans. This is followed by the Turkish presidential election on May 14, in which Russia is rooting for the current sitting president, and then a decision must be made on the corridor door if it ends on May 18. Today is the last day that vessels can enter the Black Sea corridor and be able to return before the corridor door closes.
The US dollar is firmer this morning but still in its 101.50 trading range after the release of the April payrolls, which came in higher than the 185,000 job build expectation and was reported at 253K. The prior February and March reports were lowered by a combined 149,000. This put unemployment at 3.4% versus the expected 3.5%. A theme that’s been running is that the numbers always beat expectations at the report release, while prior positive numbers for the previous months get reduced.
Central US warms with daily shower chances into May 20. Northern Plains moisture this weekend will stall out seeding that got underway heavily this past week. Canadian Prairie dryness is beginning to worsen amid limited rain for another 10 days, where above-normal temperatures have prevailed.
Yesterday was a mixed day for live and feeder cattle, with a steady-better outlook anticipated this morning. Cash markets were quiet Thursday after the trade was wrapped up earlier, $1.00 lower on the week in the South at $72.00. Meanwhile, on Thursday, choice box beef values were up $0.43, and select gained $0.37. June cattle are holding just above the 50-day moving average and need to start a recovery rally or risk breaking technical support, which could bring in liquidation from index funds.