Wheat and corn recover late in the overnight session.

Grain futures were lower overnight, making new calendar year lows, as recession fears soar over more regional banks yesterday reported in trouble, with crude oil nose-diving back below 70.00 this morning. A late morning bounce on wheat and corn occurred on rumors that Russia is again becoming hard-lined on the renewal of the grain corridor and is now moving meetings to Moscow on Friday with the UN and Turkey.

Today the Federal Reserve makes its announcement on the interest rate hike cycle with a pause anticipated. This would weaken the US dollar, especially if the debt ceiling is not raised if the Democrats refuse to negotiate to control the debt.

In Brazil, corn prices have fallen to the equivalent of 5.18 for the July contract on the Bovespa grain exchange as the safrinha corn crop looks to receive more beneficial rain. Also, StoneX raised their estimate on the Brazilian soybean crop to now projecting 157.7 MMTs, well above recent conversations that other analysts started projecting 155 MMTs of beans. US SRW Gulf wheat is the cheapest in the world, and it’s now getting interest from Mexico and South American millers. US Plain’s abandonment of wheat is anticipated to be massive amid months of drought.

Warm temperatures push East into the Central US this weekend while forecast models struggle with rain across the Plains. Today’s solution pushes east and north, leaving the western half of Kansas arid. Warm temperatures and rain for South and Central US are forecasted in mid-May with confidence in the 11-15 day below average on the dynamic North American weather pattern.

Live and feeder cattle stumbled sharply yesterday with the risk-off mentality and the banking crisis again being thrown in its face and the threat of reduced demand coming this summer. Cash trade on Tuesday did have some southern plains action at $1 lower at $172 from last week, with live sales in IA/MN in a wide range of $172-178, putting them down $4. The hint of the cash trade high for the spring appears to be in, with 175 in the South having seen the spring high. June cattle carrying and abnormally large discount to the spring high cash top, with major support noted at 160-161.