Wheat and corn prices give up overnight strength.
Grain futures are mixed this morning with wheat and corn softer again while soybeans maintain some strength. Wheat bounced overnight as crop ratings did not show as big of an improvement as anticipated and Egypt tendering for wheat. Soybeans found strength on a record March Oilseed Crush report which showed a March crush of 198 Mil Bu of beans, which was slightly above expectations and a record for the month of March. Soy oil stocks were also a little lower than expected, 2.388 Bil versus estimates of 2.414 Bil.
The winter wheat ratings were at 28% GD/EX, up 2% from the previous week but well below trade hope for ratings after last week’s rains in the Plains. KS/NE wheat ratings fell, while OK wheat ratings improved and Texas held steady.
The UN/Russia/Turkey will hold meetings on Wednesday in the last-ditch effort to salvage the Black Sea Grain Corridor pact. Russia continues to argue that not enough progress has been made on reducing economic sanctions, including the return of SWIFT for the Russian Agricultural Bank. If an extension deal is not struck the grain corridor will close May 18th.
There are rumors that the EPA/Biden administration could delay a decision on rRINs that was previously announced in December that was to provide new credits if electric vehicles were charged with the renewable natural gas or methane collected from manure digesters organic garbage. Legal challenges could push the EPA to delay a eRIN decision until future years. This delay would push additional mandated advanced biofuel production allocations to renewable diesel, biodiesel, or other advanced fuels. An EPA RFS final decision on allocations is due on June 14.
With warm temperatures this week, spring planting will surge ahead. Central US rains and return Sunday, with the zonal upper airflow to develop next week. The EU model has rain east of the drought areas of the Plains, but the GFS has rain positioned farther west. Additional rains for the Central US are in the 11-15 day period.
Live and feeder cattle closed lower on Monday after the expiration of the April live cattle contract Friday, extending the discounts to cash. The recent two-wheat decline reflects a $12 discount of June cattle futures to the average cash trade. This is pricing in a steep seasonal decline which could quicken nearby marketing rates and weigh on cash values. Box beef Monday had choice slipping $1.42, with select gaining $2.66. The choice/select spread is holding at a record $19 for early May. June live cattle in the current corrective struggle may target 160.00-161.00