Wheat leads overnight price decline.
We are seeing wheat prices at their lowest spot contract levels since 2021. All eyes will be on the crop report on Wednesday as that has the potential to bring support into this market for corn and beans with USDA and other private analytical firms are looking to slash Argentina’s production amid the dry February. The prospects of a 30-32 MMTs soybean crop and a 36-39 MMTs corn crop are looking realistic.
Brazilian soybean harvest is looking to reach the 50% completion rate this week and corn seedings for the winter crop to be at or above 90%. Forecast for Brazil is calling for above normal rainfall this week with the potential for 4″ over the next 10 days. Extended forecasts call for normal precipitation and temperatures. Argentina saw dry and high temperatures over the weekend continuing to take a hit to their crops. Yield is in question as they continue to estimate cuts in total production.
China has set a 5% GDP growth target in this year’s annual meeting in Beijing. A few of the topics of conversation were the government boosting consumption of big-ticket items to promote recovery of consumer services, Military spending increase of 7.2% and the want to maintain self-sufficiency in food production.
Turkey has said they are working to get the Black Sea Grain Corridor export deal extended, however there has been no sign of progress and Russia hasn’t made any inclination that the deal will be extended on March 18th.
Cattle look to offer a firm outlook this week after closing higher last week. We saw new contract highs in in the feeder cattle months all but March. The cash market is making big runs with live trade reported at $165 in all regions, $1-2 higher for the week. Live cash prices have gained $10 in 5 weeks and are sitting at $24 higher than a year ago. We are closing in on $7 from all time high prices.