Chicago wheat and bean oil received deliveries.
Grain prices stabilized overnight, with soybeans recovering moderately. Deliveries were noted for soybean oil of 199 contracts with Chicago wheat having 854 contracts delivered. There was no corn, soybeans, soymeal, or KC wheat tendered. Chicago SRW wheat is now the cheapest wheat in the world, with June offers of $263/MT and July at 256/MT. Russian and French wheat is offered at $275 MT for June. This $12/MT discount equates to $0.33/Bu to world values. It will be difficult to get overly bearish SRW wheat values presently, which are at two-year lows, ahead of the Black Sea corridor or potentially closing in 20 days.
It’s anticipated that yield data for Argentina’s corn and soybean crops will again get lowered in the May USDA crop report. With 30% of the Argentine soybean crop harvested, yield/abandonment data point to a crop size closer to 21 MMTs with 21% of the corn cut, their corn crop will likely come in under 31 MMTs. The USDA currently has soybeans at 27 MMTs and corn at 37 MMTs. The combined Brazilian and Argentine soybean crop for this year will barely be higher than last year when the world was looking for big production to help solve the tight balance sheets. The US needs to grow a trendline or better crop to help loosen up balance sheets.
The Central US forecast is warmer, with limited rain in the N Plains/NW Midwest over the next 10 days. Spring planting will surge ahead, but emergence will stay slow to the coolness through May 2. The warmer forecast follows starting May 3 and will be favorable to getting crops to emerge. Widely scattered showers across the Central Plains and W Midwest will push East as the front weakens later today, producing .1-.65” of rain. Thereafter warmer/drier upper airflow prevails with high temps reaching seasonally 60s/70s and 80s. The Plains may experience the lower 90s in the 11-15 day period under a high-pressure Ridge.
Live and feeder cattle yesterday closed firm with a steady outlook offered for early trade this morning. Cash trade for Thursday was quoted at $178 on a live basis in Nebraska which was $4.00 lower from last week and dressed trades at $278 were $10 lower. The trade was light leaving more business to be transacted today. Beef cow slaughter has slowed in 2023 and has recently been on either side of the five-year average. The cumulative kill is down 12% from last year but still the second highest since 1997. The January 1 inventory was down 4% from last year and the lowest on record. Slaughter has been 3.4% of the inventory, matching the previous record that was set in 1996. The lower cow kill further tightens US beef supplies.