Stats Canada wheat data bearish expectations.
Grain futures are mixed this morning after a from night session, while spring wheat is down 9 cents on the stats Canada crop report this morning that showed All wheat at 26.96 Mil acres, up from the average estimate of 26.3 and 1.5 Mil acres above last year’s 25.4 Mil acre crop. Durum acreage was near steady, on estimates of 6 Mil acres, with spring wheat making up the difference. Canola came down 200,000 acres from the average guess of 21.59 Mil acres.
First notice day for May futures is this Friday, and futures are oversold with heavy liquidation of market length in soybeans and soymeal. Traders are not expecting many deliveries with cash corn and soybeans trading at lofty historical premiums.
The Kremlin is said to be reviewing the UN proposal to keep the Ukrainian Grain export Corridor open but has released pessimistic comments on new banking proposals that include using J.P. Morgan and Turkish banks under tight security. Russia does not want a case-by-case banking decision for ag exports and is demanding the return of SWIFT for the Russian Agriculture Bank. Russia’s envoy to the UN stated that no real progress in ending Rustin sanction demands has been achieved in order to keep the corridor open. Even though negotiations are continuing, Russia is taking a hard line on its demands.
Rain is starting in the Plains currently, with the best amounts in SW Kansas, where several counties have now picked up over 1.25”. In other counties, the rain has been light to moderate, with accumulations currently a half an inch or less, with Oklahoma having seen amounts already totaling .5-2.50”. So far, N Texas has not seen rain, but there remains time for additional rain. A Follow-up system later this week produces .15-.75”. The EU weather model has done the best job forecasting rain locations and amounts.
The forecast shows warmer after May 3, with near to above-normal temperatures in the Plains and near-normal readings elsewhere into the middle of May. Dry weather occurs across the NW Midwest, Northern Plains, and through most of the Canadian Prairies to boost planting.
Live and feeder cattle futures closed lower on Tuesday, with a steady outlook anticipated for this morning. Again, yesterday was another day of quiet fed cattle markets with limited demand. The outlook for the week is steady as box beef values were mixed on Tuesday, with choice gaining $0.51 and select down $1.08.
Yesterday’s April Cold Storage Report showed that the end of the month March beef stocks fell sharply for the third consecutive month. Total stocks at 481 Mil pounds were down 4% from February and off 10% from last year. This marks the largest year-over-year decline since May 2019. This was also the smallest US cold stored beef stocks figure in 17 months. June’s larger than normal discount to cash for this time of year keeps it well supported with major support at 160.00-161.00.