Futures lean soft to start trading day of the week.
Concern about the central bank raising the interest rate by 25 bips in 11 days in rising. Commodity prices have been somewhat of an indicator of this happening with the bearish trade recently along with the sluggish stock market. This is looking to be the last raise in rates for 2023.
The grain corridor deal is still on all the headlines as of late and it seems to have some negative bias. Russia is expected to meet with the United Nations next week where Russia will want answers on its request for reducing economic sanctions on them. Ukraine exports may dramatically slow down into the EU due to the 3 deep water ports being damaged and new restrictions being added. Thoughts are that due to the ongoing war, corn and wheat production is going to be down sharply in Ukraine, along with the fact that they are looking to grow soybeans wherever they can.
Rains across Kansas are still forecasted to drop .25-1.5 inches of rain, but they look to miss the extreme drought-stricken areas according to weather models. The southern plains is only seeing one storm possibility in the next two weeks. The current freeze line for the next 10 days is through the middle of Kansas, southern Iowa and middle of Illinois, southern Indiana. We are still seeing below normal temps for the next 10-14 days.
With the Argentina corn and bean harvest going full speed, there is still lots of doubt on the stated 23MMTs on soybeans and 31 MMTs on corn being harvested. We could see those numbers corrected in the future as crop quality and quantities are simply not there.
Cattle too to have a favorable open to end the week. The feeder market found solid support after its break yesterday with some help from the corn market, august and beyond contracts months all trading above $230. April live cattle settled down a bit after cash trade puts the brakes on this week but the rest of the live cattle months kept inching higher.
Beef production fell to a 4 year low in March at 96% of last year. Supplies remain tight in the outlook for the year. Slaughter report showed 77,700 head less (3%) from last year with fed cattle slaughter down 16,000 head from last year. March beef cow kill was light by 58,000 head from last year and bull kill was off by 17,800 head.