Rains on the Plains are on the way.
Wheat futures continued their collapse overnight, dragging row crops with it, as rains that were pushed south and east in yesterday’s forecast have now been brought back in the western portions of Kansas. According to the EU and Canadian weather forecast models, the best rain since the summer of 2022 is on the way, with totals of 1.00-3.50” of rain arriving in Western Kansas. The rains will stabilize the HRW wheat yields and benefit pastures in the coming seeding of summer row crops.
Grain markets are also lower on the negotiations that Eastern European countries have worked out a deal with Ukraine that allows transit through their territories. Once Ukraine’s grain is inside the EU, it flows to other member states by law. There is no fresh news on whether Russia will extend the Black Sea Grain Export corridor, as meetings are to occur early next week. Russia is holding fast with demands for a host of economic sanctions to be lowered by the US/EU in order to extend seaborne exports beyond May 18.
The overnight forecast went outright wet for Kansas and the S Plains in the 7-10 day period for the EU model offering up widespread rains of 1.00-3.00” inches of rainfall, with the GFS model having totals of .5-2.00” which still favor the Eastern half of Kansas. Confidence in the rain event for April 26-30 is on the increase while the various models are working out details of rainfall totals and locations. This is an active weather pattern with the heaviest rains focused on self-Central US. Temperatures in the Central US will average below normal over the next two weeks, with a frost/freeze to push and S Kansas/S Missouri this weekend.
Yesterday live and feeder cattle turned lower after the initial firm start and produced another corrective leg in the dynamic bull market rally from the high watermark created in the futures last week. Cash sales were reported steady in the southern plains at $175 after the April contract had pushed to $177 early in the morning, while dressed trade in the Northern Plains was $1.00-2.00 lower at $288. Friday at 2 PM, the April Cattle on Feed report will be out with estimates for On Feed at 95%, Placements at 95%, and marketings at 99% if realized the placement rate will be the smallest in eight years which includes the Covid year.