Grains are mixed for the start of Turn-around Tuesday.
Grain futures pushed higher overnight on the Ukrainian Grain Corridor closure concerns along with threats of the annual Argentine port strike occurring later than normal, lifting soybeans to a new spring high, but results are muted as there is not much of a crop to export. Spot Kansas wheat stopped at prior highs and retreated in the early morning hours despite concerns for frost later this weekend but has the prospects of rain around April 26-28.
Pres. Putin visited the front lines in Eastern Ukraine to bolster his troops ahead of the spring assault that many anticipate against Ukraine. Meanwhile, the traffic of grain vessels through Istanbul is coming to a standstill, with Secretary of State Blinken blaming Russia for elevating world hunger. The outlook for the Black Sea grain corridor extension is worsening, with the West unlikely to agree to Russian terms on reopening SWIFT and dropping other sanctions.
NASS released the winter wheat crop ratings yesterday, and they were steady at 27% GD/EX, with a record large 39% of the crop rated poor/very poor, up 2% on the week. US winter wheat yield ratings are on track for 20-25% below trend. Spring wheat planting was at 3%, down 7% from the five-year average.
Today’s EU weather model offers some rain for Kansas and eastern Oklahoma on April 26-28th. The rain comes too late to benefit much of the HRW wheat yield potential, but it will benefit pastures and the onset of summer row crop planting. The storm system produces showers/storms across the upper Midwest tomorrow, with a deep low-pressure trough slowly moving eastward into the weekend. Rainfall totals are estimated at 1-3.00” with a few locally heavier amounts.
The cold and rain will limit spring seeding progress with a second system forecast for mid-next week while temps will be averaging 4-6° lower than normal. Freezing temps look to persist across the Northern Plains through next week.
After correcting late last week, cattle prices returned higher on Monday and are anticipated firm for the opening today. April and May feeder cattle are pushing new contract highs on strength in the cash index. The early outlook for the cash trade this week is for a steady higher trade as box beef prices yesterday also had choice up $3.36 while select bolted $5.45. The April COF report comes out this Friday with early estimates that have not been average yet but reflect 94.9% On Feed, 93.7% Placements 97.2% on Marketings of a year ago.