Wheat futures start the week correcting Friday's big surge.
Grain futures initially opened higher Sunday night after Poland and Hungary announced on Saturday their placing bans on Ukrainian grain being transported through their countries due to the stockpiling that is causing low prices. But after the initial opening, wheat futures took a hit, as algorithm computers chose to focus on the rain that fell across C and E Kansas late Friday, correcting Friday’s large surge.
Soybeans continued to stabilize above $15.00 ahead of today’s NOPA member report, which is expected to show a near-record crush rate of 183-184 Mil Bu, compared to 182.4 Mil Bu last year and 165.4 Mil Bu in February. Soy oil stocks are forecasted to rise to 1.890 Bil pounds due to the strong crush pace.
Ukraine’s Restoration Ministry indicated that the Black Sea Grain Initiative is in danger of being shut down after Russia started to block the inspection of ships and Turkish waters. The Kremlin commented that the prospects of the grain deal are “not bright.” The current pace is set to expire on May 18, which is already seeing reduced vessel numbers that are passing to load.
The Central US weather forecast has dry weather for the Plains that deepens a drought while late winter temperatures hang across the Central US into May. The chill slows of snow melt in the N Plains and the emergence of corn/soy seedlings. Shower chances redeveloped from Thursday to Sunday across the Lake states with totals of .25-1.25” favoring MN/WI/MI. The Plains will be dry for another 10-12 days, with the drought becoming acute. There are shower chances always apparent in the 11-15 day period, and that’s been the case over the last three weeks.
Friday had seen the second day of corrective action after last week’s explosive new all-time highs scored on Wednesday. Last week’s sharply higher cash trade with the South trading $5 higher at $175 while Nebraska and IA/MN had seen cattle move $5-11 higher for the week at $180-186. Box beef values had choice gaining $11 .64 for the week to $302.62. Select was $8 higher at $283.87. Both values are record seasonal highs for mid-April. Slaughter margins increased $10/head to $127 on southern cattle but were down $30 to $37 on northern purchases. The April Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday, which could create further profit-taking ahead of the report. Major support lies at $160-161 for June cattle.