WASDE crop report out today at 11:00 a.m.
Grain prices moved higher overnight as the NASS reported that the US winter wheat crop was rated 27% GD/EX, which tied the lowest record for crop ratings in early April going back to 1996. Meanwhile, the SRW wheat condition report improved slightly and was 2% above the five-year average.
French milling wheat reopened early this morning at 3:45 AM (after being closed for Easter Monday) and failed to respond to the weekend comments from Russia on the Grain Corridor. CBOT values were caught extremely overbought in comparison and turned lower as French milling wheat also again edged closer to $250/MT. The low French milling wheat made on March 23 was $243 and has retreated from its March 29 high of $271.25/MT made on March 29 when Kansas City initially peaked at 896.4 on the same date.
Soybeans caught a bid overnight as Argentine farmers are not responding to the new peso/dollar conversion of 200/1 the Argentine government is offering to inspire sales. There is a blue peso rate well above 400/1 conversion, and farmers are scared to part with their soybeans (as good as gold) against an inflation rate that is running at 100%
Brazil is anticipated to export 15 MMTs or more of soybeans in April, with China as the largest buyer of their crop. China continues to be on an import pace well above the annual USDA forecast of 98 MMTs. Pace analysis would suggest that China could import 10-12 MMTs more than what the USDA is forecasting which would drop the combined Brazil/Argentina/US total carry out to a new 14-year low. China has been on a large world soybean buying spree since January 1, with the pace having accelerated during the Brazilian harvest.
Yesterday’s strength in the corn market was tied to corn bids in central Illinois that were $0.45 over the May futures, with soybeans trading as much as $0.60 over. A timely start to Midwest planting is keeping the rally in check.
The forecast for the Central US looks to go slightly warmer for a longer period of time, was summer like warmth continuing through Friday. Cooling and a few widely scattered Midwest showers are anticipated over the weekend, with no rain chances for the Plains HRW wheat crop. The plains experienced temperatures of the 80s to/90s while the 11-15 day period continues to hint for some rain chances. Confidence in that rain remains low with the northward movement of the jet stream.
Yesterday was another round of new contract highs for live and feeder cattle as negotiated fed cattle remain quiet, which is typical for the beginning of the week. Last week’s five-area average negotiated lives dear price was put at $173, setting a new all-time high. Box beef had choice gaining $1.93, and select jumped $2.62. Strength in the choice cutout on Monday was led by the ribs and loin primal, which added $0.60 to the whole carcass value.