Soybeans tumble back under $15.00.
Thursday morning’s grain trade is mixed with row crops lower ahead of the long Easter weekend which has grains closed for Good Friday and will reopen Easter Sunday evening. Weather forecasts call for a quick warming trend across the central US which starts this weekend and extends in the mid-April with highs in the 70s/80s, allowing for fieldwork in the start of spring planting. Kansas City wheat futures are higher on their aired forecast extending the historical spread over soft wheat.
Brazil’s 150 MMT plus soy crop is creating storage/transit logistic problems due to lack of infrastructure. Brazilian soybeans are $1.75/Bu cheaper than US Gulf beans. If they are not needed now, buyers will await the much cheaper Brazilian beans. China has recently been seen swapping purchases of Argentine soybeans for US beans and that demand is possibly limited to 1 MMT for reserve storage purposes. Argentina has put the improved conversion rate to get farmers to sell soybeans at 300 pesos/MT versus the 210/MT that currently exists, and will extend this through the end of May.
Favorable weather enters the Central US on Friday with spring planting improving after Easter. The EU model offers limited rain for the southern half of the Plains while a line of showers/storms is noted for SE Texas into Kentucky this morning. Warming temps and limited precipitation occur across the Plains/Midwest in the next 10-12 days. Meanwhile the drought across the S and C Plains will deepen with high temps in the 80s/lower 90s creating acute stress for the HRW wheat crop.
Wednesday had live cattle closing firmer while feeder cattle were soft. Negotiated Fed cattle markets have yet to be established with asking prices in the South at $170 or better. Dressed offers in the north have been $1-2 higher at $272. Trade is expected later today ahead of the long weekend. Cattle futures are amid a dynamic move the upside and are again being corrected, awaiting further cash strength. Choice cutout values are nearly $6 higher on the week with select gaining more than $7.