Argentine grain inspectors threatened strike.
Grain trade firmed overnight as the ongoing weather models predict blizzard-like conditions in the Northern Plains through the first week of April, along with the uncertainty of the upcoming seeding date on Friday taking a nervous tone. Also, Argentine grain inspectors are demanding higher wages and are set to strike at midnight.
The EU commission has lifted the 22/23 wheat exports, which will lower stocks. Previously the estimated EU wheat ending stocks at 17.1 MMT’s, but with the increase of exports the commission now pegs ending stocks at 14.5 MMTs. The still remains above the USDA’s estimate of 11.1, but if corrected it is not burdensome. The Russian grain market has become self-sustaining is evidence is the rapid exit Western companies with Cargill and Viterra combined having accounted for 13-14% of Russian wheat exports.
Both the EU and GFS weather models have heavy snow hitting SD, Eastern ND and the far upper Midwest next week. Major producing areas of NE and IA will be missed, but confidence is rising that one more blizzard-like event will impact the N Plains. Minimum temperatures in the morning still sit in the single digits, with midday highs in the 20s/30s. Abnormally cold temperatures persist for the N Plains throughout the next 10 days while the drought worsens for the S Plains.
Live cattle advanced again yesterday, with April stopping just short of $166. The cash feeder Index is at the second highest-ever price since November 2015 and at $191.27. In March 2015, the cash feeder Index trade in a range of $206-219. Bullishness is starting to get priced in for the cattle trade while the equity markets still concern themselves with recession into the third quarter.