Stocks and Acreage Report out at 11:00 a.m. CT today.
A mixed grain trade this morning greets the USDA March Stocks and Seeding’s report out at 11 AM CT. Wheat prices were lower on follow-through after yesterday’s reversal, while soybeans continue to remain firm.
It’s been observed that China continues to switch reserve soybean purchases from Argentina to the US. Argentine soybeans do not work well for their reserve with their high oil content, making long-term storage difficult. It’s being estimated that China has recently rolled 400-500,000 MTs to the US with another potential 500,000 MTs yet to be completed. This is keeping the basis firm at the Gulf as cash supplies are pursued for strong crush margins.
Argentina also announced late yesterday of pursuing another new soybean/dollar sales program to become active in early April. The peso/dollar rate will be confirmed on Monday, and this is training Argentine farmers to only sell cash soybeans on these elevated peso swaps that could become problematic longer-term. Also, the Argentine government may consider offering it for corn as well. Farmers are fighting domestic inflation approaching 100% and are holding on to their crops and selling on a need for funds basis. Commodities have become their gold.
Yesterday the head of the EU Agriculture indicated he would support a request from Poland to limit grain flows into the EU from Ukraine. Ukraine grain has saturated the EU market and caused Polish, Romanian and Bulgarian farm prices to collapse. A package of financial aid has been offered to their farmers with the second aid package in the works. Any limiting of Ukrainian grain imports will put a heightened need for the ocean court order to remain open to world importers from Ukraine.
Further cattle price strength was enjoyed yesterday as April cattle burst to a new contract high while cash sales in Texas surged $2-4 higher at $165-167, Kansas was up $4 at $167. Nebraska sales were $5-6 higher at $169-171. The cash market is leading the recovery strength with nearby cattle futures now with in just over $4.00 of historic highs while April 2024 contract marked a record high close for any cattle contract at $175.15