Grain trade is mixed as is outside markets this morning.
Grain futures are mixed this morning after a low volume will night session. The European banking sector is calm today as the Swiss National Bank offered a $50 billion line of credit to Credit Swiss (Credit Susie). This was highly anticipated late yesterday as the markets had experienced a late recovery. However, outside markets are more mixed despite the news, as there seems to be a hesitation of who’s next.
It’s becoming widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve will raise its lending rate by .25% next week and a potential long pause after that; this is the opposite of just two weeks ago, as the expectations have moved from a .50% rate hike with further in coming months. If the Federal Reserve does slow down due to the current stress it’s putting on banks, the US dollar will start to weaken.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush number came in mostly as expected, but it reflected the first time domestic US soybean oil demand was higher than production. This has occurred with crushers running at near capacity. This could bring about a draw on supplies as renewable diesel plants come online in the second quarter. The crush spread will soon see strength on the soyoil side. Soybean oil had been weak due to minimal exports.
The Argentine forecast has chances of isolated and widely scattered showers through early next week. There are daily rain chances across Argentina of .25-1.50” with 70% coverage. High temps will be in the 80s/90s, above normal for late summer, but down from the recent 90s/lower 100s.
Live and feeder cattle experienced heavy selling yesterday as a technical breakdown from long liquidation occurred in cattle and hogs. Live cattle have tumbled to trendline support in the 100-day moving average, while June cattle have fallen through their trendline support. Cash cattle traded $1-to lower than the prior week at $163-16 for the southern plains. Box beef had choice down $1.64 and select slipping $1.93. April live cattle need to find technical support in the 161 range or run the risk of implying a cash high has occurred in March, with a price slide anticipated into April.