Farm Forum estimates released.
This morning’s grain trade is mixed after the USDA released its 2023 forum outlook and balance sheets. WASDE put corn seedings at 91 Mil acres, up 2.4 Mil from last year, soybeans at 87.5 Mil acres, nearly equal to last year, and wheat seedings were up 3.8 Mil acres to 49.5. The data was seen as slightly bearish for grains but supportive for soybeans.
Corn ending stocks for the 2023/24 crop year were put at 1.877 Mil Bu on a record yield of 181.5 BPA. They put total demand at 14.490 Mil Bu with exports at 2.2 Mil Bu. This lifts the 2023/24 corn stocks/use ratio to 13%.
2023/24 soybean ending stocks were placed at 290 Mil Bu, up 65 Mil Bu from the current crop year, with a stocks/use ratio rising to 6.5%. Exports were set at 2.025 Mil Bu, with total demand growing to a near record 4.461 Mil Bu due to massive renewable diesel demand and a record large US soybean crush rate of 2.310 Mil Bu. US soybean yield was put at 52 BPA.
Wheat stocks were forecast to rise to 608 Mil Bu on a crop of 1.887 Mil Bu, utilizing a yield of 49.2 BPA. Until rains start to arrive in the Western Plains, the trend yield would be too high with existing low crop condition ratings.
The balance sheets were close to trade expectations and are not considered market movers on today’s pricing expectations. The data was compiled from models and had no farmer input.
Overnight more thunderstorms broke out across areas of Central Argentina with coverage of 20% in rain totals of .10-.80”. Another 48 hours of potential possible showers could occur across Argentina and Southern Brazil before a 5-6 day stretch of dry weather returns. The forecast models have dryness prevailing in Argentina from Saturday through next Wednesday before showers return. Next Thursday/Friday, there are possibilities of again rain potentials from scattered to .80” potential. The 11-15 day forecast brings in better rain chances, but again they are too far out to be confident.
Cattle trade yesterday on the futures was firm as cash markets in the South remain untreated of than late reports of Nebraska at $161 and IA/MM picking up $164. Brazil’s Minister of Agriculture confirms exports to China have been suspended after a case of mad cow disease was found in the northern state of Para. Yesterday box beef had choice gaining $0.71 while select pushed higher by $2.80. March feeder cattle closed at their best close since the first day of the year.
The February Cattle on Feed report will be released this Friday at 2:00 p.m. Average estimates have marketings at 104% of last year, placements at 97% in the February 1 feedlot inventory of 97%. If this data is confirmed, it will be the lowest January placement rate in seven years and the lowest February inventory in four years.