A quiet overnight grain trade before the holiday weekend.
The Ag markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents Day. South American markets will also be closed nest week Monday and Tuesday for their Carnival Holiday. That will limit cash sales next week during a time when Brazil is pushing offers in soybeans, meal and soy oil to world buyers. As of now, Brazilian soybeans are $1.08 per bushel cheaper than US beans.
SA weather focus is starting to decline now that Brazil is harvesting record large soybean crop while Argentina has struggled with an extended drought. Now Argentina is catching some late rains and cool temps which will allow the crop to stabilize and improve into harvest. Rain showers on Thursday over Argentina totaled around 1″ of rain. This week’s total rainfall in that region was better than the forecast made it seem. A cool but dry period is approaching Argentina with lows in the 40s. The temperature is set to warm back up late February with rains back in the forecast at the time also.
58 million birds are being euthanized in the US due to the rapidly spreading Avian bird flu. The EU, black Sea, and South America are also seeing millions of poultry birds dying due to the flu. If this continues into spring, it will have a direct impact on the world grain/feed demand.
Boxed beef market had a solid day of gains yesterday with choice jumping $3.88 to $279.55 and select $1.45 higher at $262.64. The weekly export sales are reporting exports are 108% of last year while sales are down 29% at a 3-year low. Export commitments are down 19% from last year, also at a 3 year low.
April cattle are trading above recent cash prices but can’t seem to get much premium added on the board near record prices. April cattle should find support near 160 on any correction in the short term.