Soybean prices rebound on weather model shift

Grain values chopped overnight, trading two-sided ranges, with soybeans traversing a $0.22 trading range as overnight rallies from reduced rain in the Argentine weather model allowed soybeans to get within two cents of Sunday night’s high. The US dollar weakened overnight after the sharp rally experienced since last Friday’s jobs number and is retracing back to prior resistance, now support at 102.20-102.45.

Yesterday’s report revealed that Brazil will now not only be the largest exporter of soybeans in the world, but they will also now be the largest exporter of corn at 50 MMTs (1,965 Bil Bu.) export tonnage for soybeans should come to 92 MMTs. Russia and Australia will each export record amounts of wheat tonnage, with Russia targeted for 43.5 MMTs and Australia at 28 MMTs. Some suggest that Russia will export over 45 MMTs before the season is done. Despite the rhetoric, Russia does want to extend the Black Sea Corridor into June.

Export sales data out this morning had corn at the top end of estimates at 1.160 MTs, while soybeans and wheat were at the lower end of guesses, with soybeans at .459 MTs and wheat at .131 MTs

The SA forecast for Argentina and Southern Brazil is drier than the prior forecast, with rain chances pushed backward into Monday-Wednesday instead of starting on Sunday with limited totals. Next week’s rains favor Northern Argentina with totals of .5-1.50″, with southern crop areas receiving .25-1.00″. The extended range has the 8-14 forecast to return to dry weather with high seasonal temperatures in the 80s/90s.

It was a mixed trade for cattle yesterday, while feeder cattle were weaker, with modest cash cattle trade being reported Wednesday. A small number of cattle traded in Nebraska, steady with the prior week at $157. Show lists in the South are still offered at $161-162. The recent surge in live cattle futures has stalled after making new contract highs, and technically overbought levels are inspiring bouts of profit-taking. Further strength in the cash market is needed to inspire further strength. In yesterday’s WASDE report, the USDA lowered second-quarter beef production by 1%, which will now be 7% lower than last year. They have second-quarter pricing at $159, with the board carrying a $5.00 premium.